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+--- Thread: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... (/showthread.php?tid=246505)
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Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - RgrF - 09-19-2020
...that the Democratic Party will take control of the Senate this year.
This 5 minutes ago. Nate just gave Mitch a spur he didn't need.
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - $tevie - 09-19-2020
I'm pretty sick of Nate Silver. I think he's all math and no common sense. And no heart.
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - mattkime - 09-19-2020
$tevie wrote:
I'm pretty sick of Nate Silver. I think he's all math and no common sense. And no heart.
Eh, no common sense?
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - sekker - 09-19-2020
Actually, he says there is a higher chance of the democrats taking the Senate than the GOP to retain it.
Not sure how his forecast justifies this statement - '...that the Democratic Party will take control of the Senate this year.'
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - RgrF - 09-19-2020
sekker wrote:
Actually, he says there is a higher chance of the democrats taking the Senate than the GOP to retain it.
Not sure how his forecast justifies this statement - '...that the Democratic Party will take control of the Senate this year.'
The headline was lifted from the MEDIAite site; my issue wasn't with the prediction (after all it is the notoriously inaccurate Nate Silver) so much as it was with the timing.
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - $tevie - 09-19-2020
mattkime wrote:
[quote=$tevie]
I'm pretty sick of Nate Silver. I think he's all math and no common sense. And no heart.
Eh, no common sense? He couldn't wait to say this?
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - mattkime - 09-19-2020
$tevie wrote: He couldn't wait to say this?
He didn't say it. Mediaite said it. he said this - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/ - and I suspect its updated continuously.
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - mrbigstuff - 09-19-2020
Even if he didn't say it, some blowhard will say it to gin up the troglodytes.
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - graylocks - 09-19-2020
i listened to the entire 538 podcast today. that’s not the conclusion Silver drew. he said there was about a 29% chance of the dems taking the Senate which, weirdly enough, what he predicated 45’s chances of winning in 2016 at a time when the 45 campaign predicted they had a 30% chance of winning. 538 said it would more likely be a 50/50 split.
Re: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted... - Speedy - 09-19-2020
It shouldn’t even be a contest given how horribly the Republicans have screwed up the response to COVID45.