+- MacResource (https://forums.macresource.com)
+-- Forum: My Category (https://forums.macresource.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1)
+--- Forum: Tips and Deals (https://forums.macresource.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=3)
+--- Thread: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance (/showthread.php?tid=224438)
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - IronMac - 01-03-2019
Carnos Jax wrote:
Apple has fat margins on their products. They can lower their prices and sell more...which is what they'll eventually do. They'll be back to making mad money and the stock price will resume it's normal journey.
That does not compute.
If you lower your prices, you have to sell more in order to make up for those lower prices. To make even more "mad money" to goose the stock you have to be selling a LOT more of those lower priced units. That's going to be almost impossible in a saturated market against excellent competition.
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - Carnos Jax - 01-03-2019
N-OS X-tasy! wrote:
[quote=Carnos Jax]
LOL...I thought Newt was being a bit dramatic there too.
That's not on Newt - the headline for the NYT article she cited uses the word "plunge."
It seemed like she was making that point too (my apologies to the Newt if not so).
IronMac wrote:
If you lower your prices, you have to sell more in order to make up for those lower prices. To make even more "mad money" to goose the stock you have to be selling a LOT more of those lower priced units. That's going to be almost impossible in a saturated market against excellent competition.
Then is it the saturated market that's keeping Apple from selling more? In other words, there's nothing Apple could have done either way?
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - IronMac - 01-03-2019
Carnos Jax wrote:
Then is it the saturated market that's keeping Apple from selling more? In other words, there's nothing Apple could have done either way?
If Cook is blaming China, for the past 2-3 years AAPL's smartphone share of the market has been going down even as the market has grown. It's down to about 2% or something like that now of the total smartphone market.
AAPL is also doing very poorly in India. Even worse than in China. The Indian market is growing tremendously but iPhones are simply too expensive.
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - Carnos Jax - 01-03-2019
I would think a very fast growing market in India and China (coupled with the fact they've both got huge populations) would mean a lower price would be more than compensated for by increased sales. I wonder what kind of growth the high end market is seeing in those countries.
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - IronMac - 01-03-2019
Carnos Jax wrote:
I would think a very fast growing market in India and China (coupled with the fact they've both got huge populations) would mean a lower price would be more than compensated for by increased sales. I wonder what kind of growth the high end market is seeing in those countries.
The Chinese market is just about saturated now for smartphones. If you want an iPhone and can afford it, you will have had one by now. Again, AAPL's share is extremely small there.
As for India, again, if you have the money and wanted an iPhone you would have one by now. The growing market for smartphones in India is in the middle and lower classes. They can't afford an iPhone.
The thing you have to remember is that AAPL doesn't market itself on price.
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - max - 01-03-2019
Iron Mac knows the market.
Instead of =just working+, Apple software has become kludgu,
Tim Cook has no vision and there is so long you can ride on momentum of the past successes....
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - IronMac - 01-03-2019
Here are some numbers from Canalys, a market research firm. My numbers are totally wrong when I said 2%, that may be the Indian market.
"Apple's share of the Chinese smartphone market contracted to 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2018 from a peak in 2015 of 12.5%."
IDC says that for the first three quarters of 2018, Apple ranked as the fifth-largest seller in China.
All of the above is from the WSJ.
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - NewtonMP2100 - 01-03-2019
.....Apple needs help with China and India.....
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - NewtonMP2100 - 01-03-2019
....Tim is blaming the $29 battery replacement program....
Re: Apple cuts Q1 revenue guidance - Carnos Jax - 01-03-2019
I don't know to what extent trade fears and other global factors are affecting Apple's stock price...but assuming those factors don't deepen...based on Apple's past history over the years, I think this is just a part of the normal pattern and Apple will eventually bounce back.