![]() |
Trump is going to win - Printable Version +- MacResource (https://forums.macresource.com) +-- Forum: My Category (https://forums.macresource.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1) +--- Forum: 'Friendly' Political Ranting (https://forums.macresource.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6) +--- Thread: Trump is going to win (/showthread.php?tid=287910) |
Re: Trump is going to win - dk62 - 06-14-2024 pdq wrote: Yes but no. When was the last time that rational thinking and facts won an election? They may drive 30%-40% of the votes, but not the rest. You need energized and excited voter base that is willing to consider all the options and will get out and vote. Biden did not have the excitement last time either, but he had the despicable opponent. The same opponent is not any less despicable, but people have forgotten the disgust they shared in 2020. Coupled with disappointment in Biden's handling of Middle East (a no-win scenario either way), general feeling of worse economy than in the preceding 4 years hyperbolized by GOP messaging, unclear and insufficient Democrat messaging on the points you delineate above, and the apparent cognitive and energy decline*, there will be fewer Democratic and independent voters coming out due to apathy. And it is a pity, as getting both houses of Congress in Democrat hands is ultimately more important than who the president is. Failing that, MAGAts will be able to do crazy things with Trump as a winner, or completely block Biden if he is. *Do not make a mistake of comparing this with Trump's mental incompetency. That one does not matter to his devotees or die-hard GOPers. Re: Trump is going to win - Blankity Blank - 06-14-2024 pdq wrote: ![]() Re: Trump is going to win - vision63 - 06-14-2024 dk62 wrote: Yes but no. When was the last time that rational thinking and facts won an election? They may drive 30%-40% of the votes, but not the rest. You need energized and excited voter base that is willing to consider all the options and will get out and vote. Biden did not have the excitement last time either, but he had the despicable opponent. The same opponent is not any less despicable, but people have forgotten the disgust they shared in 2020. Coupled with disappointment in Biden's handling of Middle East (a no-win scenario either way), general feeling of worse economy than in the preceding 4 years hyperbolized by GOP messaging, unclear and insufficient Democrat messaging on the points you delineate above, and the apparent cognitive and energy decline*, there will be fewer Democratic and independent voters coming out due to apathy. And it is a pity, as getting both houses of Congress in Democrat hands is ultimately more important than who the president is. Failing that, MAGAts will be able to do crazy things with Trump as a winner, or completely block Biden if he is. *Do not make a mistake of comparing this with Trump's mental incompetency. That one does not matter to his devotees or die-hard GOPers. Do crazy things is kinda an understatement. If Trump wins and somehow gets both houses along with SCOTUS, we can cross a threshold that we can't cross back over. We can lose the country. Imagine being a Russian. We can't go "oh wow, this guy is crazy, we made a mistake, we'll correct it in the next election." While at this very moment, states are unraveling everyone's right to vote. They'll be asking everyone they hate to guess how many jellybeans are in a jar in order to "vote." There's a larger portion of the left that just want to be contrarians. I think it's the Dunning-Kruger Effect? You know enough about something to think that you're right, but not enough about it to know that you're wrong. I think I'm getting that right. The right and the left have been fighting a battle of how to stick it to one another. Both sides have become mobs with no hopes of consensus. The right are just monsters with zero concerns. The left are just monsters with zero concerns. Right now, the left is Mike Tyson on auto-pilot. We don't want the right to be Buster Douglas whose mama just died. Re: Trump is going to win - anonymouse1 - 06-14-2024 My take, which I really want to write up as an article, but I don't have time. 1. The Republicans have become the party of resentment; they primarily try to whip up resentment, and have few or no policies to put forward that will really benefit peoples' lives. 2. The Democrats suck at messaging and counterattacking. They just let the Republicans spew lies and misleading statements without any effective response. They're bring logical knives (or even spoons) to an emotional gunfight. 3. There is a pretty small number of radicals on the left. There are a large number of radicals on the right. Show me who on the left has the reach and is as radical as Murdoch, Speaker Mike Johnson, Charlie Kirk, Ben Shapiro, the Heritage Foundation? They aren't there. 4. The media has become center right, where it used to be centrist. That's all I've got time for on this Re: Trump is going to win - anonymouse1 - 06-14-2024 You're saying stuff here that doesn't match how I see things, and I know you're smart and informed, so I'm hoping you can give me some specifics, either so I can expand my understanding, or try to convince you otherwise. Who, specifically, is in the "larger portion of the left that just want to be contrarians"? Skip BLM, they are not are large portion of the left. DSA? Pro-Palestine? I see those as actually pretty small parts of the left that get disproportionately large press because scary stuff gets clicks. What are the specific things "the left" is doing to stick it to "the right"? And again, how are you defining "the left" here? Thanks! vision63 wrote: Re: Trump is going to win - vision63 - 06-14-2024 anonymouse1 wrote: Democrats can't force the media to carry it's "messages." That doesn't make them incompetent at messaging. It's not about who is a "radical" or not. It's about what has become effective at diminishing it's messages. The biggest, most gigantic fear on the left is Kamala Harris. She's Black and a woman at the precipice of power. They just don't want to come out and say it. But they say it by their nuances. If white man Gavin Newsom was Vice President, people would be lunging forward to embrace Biden. K-Hive wouldn't exist, if that wasn't a problem. If Obama wasn't Black and a "problem" on the left, Black Twitter wouldn't exist. The right is filled with "radicals" as you say. The left has a generous faction of latent misogynists (and latent racists). Right now, it's going to take a month or so before the election for these misogynists to wake the hell up and say "we can't let Trump win, screw my hidden concerns." Re: Trump is going to win - mattkime - 06-14-2024 vision63 wrote: Sorry, but thats just saying "Aren't pro and anti democratic movements just two different sides of the same coin?" Its a popular opinion but its fucking garbage. --- The biggest obstacle for dems is that Biden does a poor job of projecting competence and frankly most of politics seems to be mostly about projecting. The biggest source of optimism is the Dems have over performed in the majority of elections since the rise of Trump because the informed electorate is more likely to show up. Its waaaay too close and I REALLY wish the dems were showing up with a more muscular defense of liberal democracy but we have what we have and I need to vote regardless. Re: Trump is going to win - vision63 - 06-14-2024 mattkime wrote: Sorry, but thats just saying "Aren't pro and anti democratic movements just two different sides of the same coin?" Its a popular opinion but its fucking garbage. --- The biggest obstacle for dems is that Biden does a poor job of projecting competence and frankly most of politics seems to be mostly about projecting. The biggest source of optimism is the Dems have over performed in the majority of elections since the rise of Trump because the informed electorate is more likely to show up. Its waaaay too close and I REALLY wish the dems were showing up with a more muscular defense of liberal democracy but we have what we have and I need to vote regardless. I was being sarcastic. It was a commentary on how groupthink and mobbing works and the person that has been critical of both-siding anything on this forum has been ME, by miles. Re: Trump is going to win - mattkime - 06-14-2024 Sorry, easy to use such nuance. Re: Trump is going to win - kj - 06-14-2024 Ted King wrote: It's not easy building coalitions to win a nomination, especially against a sitting president, so it's not surprising nobody tried. I hope you also have even more disgust with Republicans who have transformed themselves into a mob party and uninformed voters who think we are in a recession and Biden was responsible for the overturning of Roe because he was president. I'm no fan of Trump. The most unforgiveable thing he's done for me is pretty much ruin the "Christian Church" (no one is capable of ruining the faith, in my opinion). I'm not a fan of abortion, so if Biden overturned Roe, that bothers me very little. My main concern is the backlash. In my opinion, the Democrats chose a bad candidate. I've heard why he's not, but he is, and it's not going well. Another killer is the most progressive part of the party that moderates on both sides dislike. And the constant smug insults perpetrated by your main Democrat PR guys (Colbert, Seth Meyers, Stewart, etc.) and parroted by half the internet is successful only in stoking anger (I can't even watch them, they are so toxic). More subtle is the straying of the Democratic party from classic liberalism where the goal is to influence people by arguing the merits of positions. The left has joined the right in ramming their ideology down peoples' throats, because they are now so sure of their righteousness. I have not, and will not vote for Trump. I may vote for Biden, or I may "throw my vote away" voting for someone I like. But I'm peeved at the Democratic Party for being so DUMB. |