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+--- Thread: Santorum spanks Romney (/showthread.php?tid=131662)
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - Grace62 - 02-08-2012
beagledave wrote:
Can you support your assertion that "the Democratic establishment" (which certainly includes more than 'Clinton fans' ) was thinking in January/February 2008, what most pundits are thinking about Romney now?
I have no idea what "most pundits" are thinking about Romney now, (I think they are confused and bewildered, like Romney.) So I won't comment on that. Like you, if I had to place a bet I'd pick Romney at this point.
But as for Clinton, that was a journey.
Clinton conceded in June of '08. She, not Obama, had the "inevitability" theme going early in the contest. That's my recollection, and personal experience.
Perhaps yours was different.
"WASHINGTON — On Dec. 5, the Chicago Tribune, Barack Obama's hometown paper, reported that new polls showing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton far ahead of the Illinois senator in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania made her nomination look "inevitable."
The Tribune's "Swamp" blog declared that "the conclusion drawn by the polling experts appears to be: Forget about Iowa being close, Clinton's inevitable, she's going to be the Democratic nominee."
A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation. A charismatic young upstart with soaring rhetoric and a compelling life story became the Democrats' candidate of destiny, and December's inevitable nominee became the eventual loser."
http://www.chron.com/news/nation-world/article/What-went-wrong-for-Hillary-Clinton-1670043.php
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - beagledave - 02-08-2012
Grace62 wrote:
Nate Silver's take. After reading this I concluded that Nate Silver has little idea what to make of this race, so he's covering every possible bet. Romney's losses last night are both stunning and inexplicable and he can't afford to do that badly again.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/g-o-p-race-has-hallmarks-of-prolonged-battle/
Oh I agree that Romney needs to get his sh*t together.
(Although again...if not Romney, who do we honestly think will get the nomination? Newt? Frothy? Ron Paul? Somebody picked out of a smoke filled backroom? Certainly most people who are paying attention still think it will be Romney. )
I DON'T agree that this is comparable to February of 2008
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - beagledave - 02-08-2012
Grace62 wrote:
"WASHINGTON — On Dec. 5, the Chicago Tribune, Barack Obama's hometown paper, reported that new polls showing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton far ahead of the Illinois senator in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania made her nomination look "inevitable."
Seriously? You're quoting a piece from BEFORE the Iowa caucuses (where Obama scored a stunning smack down on Clinton..I remember having to park 3 blocks away from the caucus site because of all of the Obama supporters) to assert that in February of 2008, Clinton was still the presumptive nominee?
Nope. Sorry.
Was Clinton the presumptive nominee at some point before the caucus season started in early January? Yes.
Was she still the presumptive nominee by the end of January, when Obama had 88 pledged delegates and Clinton had 46? No.
You're not comparing apples to apples, Grace.
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - Grace62 - 02-08-2012
beagledave wrote:
[quote=Grace62]
"WASHINGTON — On Dec. 5, the Chicago Tribune, Barack Obama's hometown paper, reported that new polls showing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton far ahead of the Illinois senator in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania made her nomination look "inevitable."
Seriously? You're quoting a piece from BEFORE the Iowa caucuses (where Obama scored a stunning smack down on Clinton..I remember having to park 3 blocks away from the caucus site because of all of the Obama supporters) to assert that in February of 2008, Clinton was still the presumptive nominee?
Nope. Sorry.
Was Clinton the presumptive nominee at some point before the caucus season started in early January? Yes.
Was she still the presumptive nominee by the end of January, when Obama had 88 pledged delegates and Clinton had 46? No.
You're not comparing apples to apples, Grace.
The date on that article is June 2008. That was some time after the Iowa caucus, as I recall.
Going into super Tuesday 2008 the delegate count was:
Clinton 249
Obama 181
Are you having a bad morning beagledave? If so I'm sorry. I don't wish to argue, sorry this got off on a bad foot. I think we're in agreement on the bigger issues here.
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - $tevie - 02-08-2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/us/politics/13assess.html?ref=politics
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - Grace62 - 02-08-2012
$tevie wrote:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/us/politics/13assess.html?ref=politics
If Santorum wins a few more races, he will be the person with the "surge" attributed to Obama in that mid-Feb '08 article. Clinton was still being described as the person destined to win the bigger states. Republicans have held only 8 contests, Santorum has won 4.
It's too early to tell.
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - $tevie - 02-08-2012
In 2008 many Democrats had to try to decide which seemed the least unlikely: that a woman could win or that a Black man could win. I think that a lot of them decided to go with the man because getting the White House back was so urgent.
In this year, I believe Republicans are using the primaries to express their anger. But now that Santorum won these latest contests, a lot of Republicans will get nervous and will also vote based on who can take back the White House -- and that's not Santorum.
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - Spock - 02-08-2012
Don't forget that Romney is a numbers man.
Number of delegates committed to him.
Number of dollars in his attack SuperPAC.
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - Grace62 - 02-08-2012
Next up Arizona and Michigan. Must-wins for Romney. If Romney cannot win Michigan, then no amount of Big Mormon Love can save him.
Those are also expensive states to campaign in, which could be tough for Santorum (although he has a sugar daddy of his own, Foster Freiss)
Interesting thing about Colorado, like South Carolina that state's GOP is still drunk on tea from 2010. And they have James Dobson. That might not translate elsewhere.
Interesting times.
EDIT: Foster Freiss is the perfect foil to Romney and Bain Capitol, I think. Freiss Associates (Brandywine Funds) is one of the country's most successful ever investment firms. But Freiss is no silver spoon boy with elitist creds. He's a by-the-bootstraps child of poor farmers small town Wisconsin military veteran with Christian conservative bona fides. He advised Santorum not to contest Florida, and that looks like a good call, plus he has an extensive network with big donors, including the Kochs.
Re: Santorum spanks Romney - beagledave - 02-08-2012
Grace62 wrote:
Are you having a bad morning beagledave? If so I'm sorry. I don't wish to argue, sorry this got off on a bad foot. I think we're in agreement on the bigger issues here.
I agree. Sorry If I was testy
