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"Mitt-mentum? Not So Fast." - $tevie - 10-27-2012
Asked who is winning, Walter answered that if "you look at the news coverage and you look at the data and you get two different answers." The news narrative involves Mitt-mentum: the October surge fueled by the first debate. The data tell a different story. "People don't elect the president, the Electoral College elects the president," Walter said. "And when you look at [state] polls, the underneath numbers suggest that it's still Obama's race right now, that fundamentally he has got the edge in the Electoral College map with some of those big states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada especially."
Cook concurred, saying that while the popular vote "is about even right now … the electoral college situation looks a little different and it is a little bit more uphill for Romney." The reason, he said, was that "there's a lot of scar tissue" in the six or seven key swing states from the summer's massive negative ad blitz against Romney. "The Obama campaign … went into swing states with a baseball bat and beat Romney's brains in. So there's still a lot of scar tissue."
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2012/10/24/obamas-electoral-college-edge-trumping-romney-momentum-message
Where most political commentators output is the product of briefings, gossip and personal perception, Silver deals in cold, hard facts. And at the moment, Silver’s facts are being fired like bullets into the heart of the Romney campaign.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100186641/nate-silver-the-geeky-statistician-who-is-singlehandedly-dismantling-the-myth-of-mitt-mentum/
It’s certainly true that Romney made impressive gains on Barack Obama in roughly the first week of October, probably in most part as a consequence of the first debate. But after that, the contest has been almost completely flat. For example, the Pollster trend line shows the race a dead heat on October 8 — and that since then, any movement has been only by small fractions of a percentage point. Nate Silver’s “nowcast” bottomed out for the president on October 12, and since then he’s recovered quite a bit. There’s simply nothing in the last twelve days to indicate movement towards Romney.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-momentum-myth/2012/10/25/f7fc67a6-1eaf-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_blog.html
Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped
Nate Silver: "Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so..."
"Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 polls, to Mr. Romney's 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney."
"Part of the confusion (and part of the reason behind the perception that Mr. Romney is still gaining ground in the race) may be because of the headlines that accompany polls."
Mark Blumenthal: ""While the debate certainly boosted Romney's standing in the polls, trends over the past two weeks have been negligible, with the leader seesawing nationally within a range of roughly one percentage point. Over the same period, the standings within the key battleground states have also remained constant. Other poll tracking models have shown the same patterns."
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/25/romneys_momentum_seems_to_have_stopped.html
And here's the man of the hour:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Re: "Mitt-mentum? Not So Fast." - Gutenberg - 10-27-2012
Gawd I hope he's right.
Re: "Mitt-mentum? Not So Fast." - Lux Interior - 10-27-2012
Hey, remember Joe-Mentum?
Yeah, didn't think so.
Re: "Mitt-mentum? Not So Fast." - Surfrider - 10-27-2012
Stevie, I have to apologize.
I was wrong when I said Obama was using the Rope-a-Dope strategy.
It appears now, that Axelrod and Co. thought that the nutjob that was in the Repub primaries was going to show in Colorado.
Instead we get a caffenated Romney and a "This guys a douchbag as he looks at Romney" Obama.
I'm still stunned that any thinking person was swayed by Mitt's Colorado performance.
If you read the transcript (which no one does), it shows Mitt talking out of both sides of his mouth and lying like a dog..."half the energy companies that got loans went bankrupt", try 8%, Mittens.
Chris Matthews said something that really rand true last night, Americans have such a short memory, people forget what happened 6 weeks ago, much less what someone said, six months ago!
Re: "Mitt-mentum? Not So Fast." - $tevie - 10-27-2012
I don't think any of us has to apologize for our political prognastications. Frankly, I think we do at least as good a job as the talking heads on TV, and in fact we may do better. :-)
Re: "Mitt-mentum? Not So Fast." - hal - 10-27-2012
That's a mighty fine post there $tevie...
I've been noticing the same thing at the various news sites, but it's great to have it all on one 'screen' - too lazy to think about doing it myself...
Why so much emphasis is being placed on the national popular vote at this point in the cycle is beyond me. In years past when information technologies were much less, I could understand - that was the best gauge we had, but in late Oct - the lead in national popular vote is simply not important.