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+--- Thread: "The Nate Silver Backlash" (/showthread.php?tid=143659)
"The Nate Silver Backlash" - $tevie - 10-30-2012
So before we deal with anything Silver has specifically said, it’s worth taking in the surrounding landscape: Every major political betting market and every major forecasting tool is predicting an Obama victory right now, and for the same reason: Obama remains ahead in enough states that, unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any we’ve yet seen in the race, Obama will win the election.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/
Re: "The Nate Silver Backlash" - hal - 10-30-2012
good read - thanks
Re: "The Nate Silver Backlash" - Uncle Wig - 10-31-2012
hal wrote:
good read - thanks
Ditto.
I LOL'd at this: Politico’s Dylan Byers wrote, “So should Mitt Romney win on Nov. 6, it’s difficult to see how people can continue to put faith in the predictions of someone who has never given that candidate anything higher than a 41 percent chance of winning.”
Re: "The Nate Silver Backlash" - hal - 10-31-2012
I considered quoting that same sentence :-)
Re: "The Nate Silver Backlash" - Dennis S - 10-31-2012
Don't people know it can rain when there is a 30% chance of rain?
Re: "The Nate Silver Backlash" - mick e - 10-31-2012
When mick e has cut hay on the field, the 30% automatically becomes 100%.
Don't worry Obama fans, haying season is over.