+- MacResource (https://forums.macresource.com)
+-- Forum: My Category (https://forums.macresource.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1)
+--- Forum: 'Friendly' Political Ranting (https://forums.macresource.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6)
+--- Thread: 538 has Clinton with 65% chance of winning. Huffpo has her at 98%. (/showthread.php?tid=197767)
538 has Clinton with 65% chance of winning. Huffpo has her at 98%. - Dennis S - 11-06-2016
I think I'll start a prediction business.
Re: 538 has Clinton with 65% chance of winning. Huffpo has her at 98%. - beagledave - 11-06-2016
Sam Wang has her at about 99% .
http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/scientist-predicts-99-chance-of-clinton-win-801634371744
Re: 538 has Clinton with 65% chance of winning. Huffpo has her at 98%. - $tevie - 11-07-2016
TheUpshot has her at 84%.
538 has been very conservative about her chances, for the most part. I think being totally wrong about Brexit has made Nate a little less cocky.
Re: 538 has Clinton with 65% chance of winning. Huffpo has her at 98%. - Uncle Wig - 11-07-2016
$tevie wrote:
TheUpshot has her at 84%.
538 has been very conservative about her chances, for the most part. I think being totally wrong about Brexit has made Nate a little less cocky.
Yup. A lot of people were wrong about Brexit, not just him.
Re: 538 has Clinton with 65% chance of winning. Huffpo has her at 98%. - davester - 11-07-2016
Nate does statistics (i.e. science). His methods are published and transparent. He also understands the meaning of uncertainty. The others do punditry.
Unfortunately, most of the public has never taken even an elementary statistics course so they can't tell the difference between Nate's carefully worded estimations and Trump yelling "the polls say that we're sending Hillary to jail!"
This would all be OK if the public at large understood that someone who spends years studying and learning to understand science knows more than idiots who own someone who just bought a propaganda broadcasting station. Unfortunately this is not the case.
Re: 538 has Clinton with 65% chance of winning. Huffpo has her at 98%. - OWC Jamie - 11-07-2016
538 is obviously Trump biased.