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+--- Thread: Don't underestimate Donald Trump (/showthread.php?tid=242395)
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Don't underestimate Donald Trump - Lemon Drop - 06-13-2020
He could be re-elected.
he wants it bad and he's been getting what he wants his entire adult life (lie, cheat and /or steal)
He thinks he's been an excellent president and is narcissistic and delusional enough to say that convincingly to the faithful 39 to 44% we know will vote for him
The pandemic could work in his favor with election day chaos, low turnout, etc.
His campaign knows how to work the EC, they don't care about what the majority of voters think because they don't need the majority to win
I'm optimistic about Biden and at the same time scared sh%tless that we'll be traumatized by another 4 years of Trump's hot mess
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - deckeda - 06-13-2020
Sometime last year I gave up "wishing" he'd be gone. Far more healthy to realize that if he's reelected, it should come as no surprise. Do what you can to minimize such an outcome, but proceed with your life as best you can regardless. That's my prescription for anything politics-related.
All one needs to do is remember 2016 for why I say the above ... and NOT get lost in the details as to why this-or-that happened. Many of us wasted 2017 worrying about the Why It Happened, if you ask me.
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - sekker - 06-13-2020
He's only one new 'October Surprise' from winning again for sure.
I've given up on the country seeing The Orange Emperor as what he is.
Plenty of changes happening locally that are largely for the better, though new voting suppression laws are deeply worrisome to me long-term.
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - PeterB - 06-13-2020
My personal feeling is that, as usual, it'll come down to the EC. That's why it'll be crucial to mobilize the minority / disenfranchised voters in those swing states... I posted this in another thread, but I think it'll come down to: AZ, FL, MI, NC, WI ... and of course OH/PA.
Remember also that there are ways around the election day chaos / low turnout / coronavirus issues ... I myself will be doing an early / mail-in ballot. That was nearly his downfall in 2016, which is why he and his campaign managers are doing all they can to prevent/circumvent this.
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - sekker - 06-13-2020
PeterB wrote:
My personal feeling is that, as usual, it'll come down to the EC. That's why it'll be crucial to mobilize the minority / disenfranchised voters in those swing states... I posted this in another thread, but I think it'll come down to: AZ, FL, MI, NC, WI ... and of course OH/PA.
Remember also that there are ways around the election day chaos / low turnout / coronavirus issues ... I myself will be doing an early / mail-in ballot. That was nearly his downfall in 2016, which is why he and his campaign managers are doing all they can to prevent/circumvent this.
Yes, will be fascinating to see how the mail-in ballot issues split this election. I think MN is doing a great job amidst COVID in ensuring access to the ballot box - that alone seems to me to be a major blow to the Orange Emperor. But next door in WI - will be different. I think the OE is alienating MI, so I think the key states are PA and WI. But if COVID goes terrible in AZ or FL, there will be some massive implications there too.
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - PeterB - 06-13-2020
sekker wrote:
[quote=PeterB]
My personal feeling is that, as usual, it'll come down to the EC. That's why it'll be crucial to mobilize the minority / disenfranchised voters in those swing states... I posted this in another thread, but I think it'll come down to: AZ, FL, MI, NC, WI ... and of course OH/PA.
Remember also that there are ways around the election day chaos / low turnout / coronavirus issues ... I myself will be doing an early / mail-in ballot. That was nearly his downfall in 2016, which is why he and his campaign managers are doing all they can to prevent/circumvent this.
Yes, will be fascinating to see how the mail-in ballot issues split this election. I think MN is doing a great job amidst COVID in ensuring access to the ballot box - that alone seems to me to be a major blow to the Orange Emperor. But next door in WI - will be different. I think the OE is alienating MI, so I think the key states are PA and WI. But if COVID goes terrible in AZ or FL, there will be some massive implications there too.
I would LOVE to see NC go blue this year. Remember that the Eastern votes (NC / PA / FL) are important because the news loves to show the results as they're coming in, and that could influence voters in the Midwest and West.
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - vision63 - 06-13-2020
sekker wrote:
[quote=PeterB]
My personal feeling is that, as usual, it'll come down to the EC. That's why it'll be crucial to mobilize the minority / disenfranchised voters in those swing states... I posted this in another thread, but I think it'll come down to: AZ, FL, MI, NC, WI ... and of course OH/PA.
Remember also that there are ways around the election day chaos / low turnout / coronavirus issues ... I myself will be doing an early / mail-in ballot. That was nearly his downfall in 2016, which is why he and his campaign managers are doing all they can to prevent/circumvent this.
Yes, will be fascinating to see how the mail-in ballot issues split this election. I think MN is doing a great job amidst COVID in ensuring access to the ballot box - that alone seems to me to be a major blow to the Orange Emperor. But next door in WI - will be different. I think the OE is alienating MI, so I think the key states are PA and WI. But if COVID goes terrible in AZ or FL, there will be some massive implications there too.
It may very well come down to this, however, it's an undependable voting demographic. Dems already basically get this vote. So we're talking marginal turnout percentage elevation swings of a minority group in a general election.
The "only" metric we have to go on is based on what brought about victories in 2018. 41 flipped House seats fueled literally by female white swing voters. Note that one seat, California 25, flipped back to MAGA by a massive landslide last month or so. They're gonna turn out in heavy numbers.
In this primary season, Sanders believed that he could motivate a massive turnout in the the 18 - 29 age demographic, and that would propel him to the nomination. Hindsight being fairly clear, only 13% of that demo voted despite the massive rallies that they believed was proof of his popularity. Why they didn't vote is a big question mark.
White suburban women who are sick of Trump will likely provide the margin. The one's everybody keeps calling Karen. Trump's team is hammering them with the idea that the entire Democratic left is socialist. They're not interested in socialism. They're actually afraid of it.
Hopefully, there will be a massive groundswell of everyone that hates Trump turning out to sweep him and all of his enablers to the curb. That would be ideal. That's if everybody can focus and not allow their righteousness and purities to infect their decision making sensibility. Like pundit Eddie Glaude Jr did in 2016 (though he's still punditing away unfettered as if he literally didn't try to sink Clinton. Multiply him by thousands and consider the sweep of their influence).
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - RgrF - 06-13-2020
Note that one seat, California 25, flipped back to MAGA by a massive landslide last month or so
That's Buck McKeon's old seat, it was never a swing district. It had a Democratic in that seat for the same reasons Kentucky has a Dem Gov and Alabama has a Dem Senator.
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - vision63 - 06-13-2020
RgrF wrote:
Note that one seat, California 25, flipped back to MAGA by a massive landslide last month or so
That's Buck McKeon's old seat, it was never a swing district. It had a Democratic in that seat for the same reasons Kentucky has a Dem Gov and Alabama has a Dem Senator.
We flipped it. Then Katie Hill quit, which she never should have done because it was hard won. Then Christy Smith jumped in and was the clear frontrunner for that special election. In the earlier primary she beat the guy that defeated her in the runoff by 27 points. For some reason, Cenk Ugher jumped into the primary (because he's a jackass) and trashed Christy while sucking up media attention, eventually garnering 5 point something points. Christy failed to cross 50% which led to the runoff where she got slaughtered. People better learn to focus and try to win, then keep winning.
Re: Don't underestimate Donald Trump - AllGold - 06-14-2020
I'm optimistic. If the election were today, Trump would get crushed.
Yes, a lot can happen between now and the election. A LOT. I hate to even say it, but it's even possible that Joe Biden could have a heart attack or stroke and die or at least be unable to hold office.
I'm optimistic because there are high-profile Republicans saying "don't vote for Trump."
I'm optimistic because outside of Trump's base, which by the way, he seems to have zero interest in expanding, he will get virtually no votes. The people who voted for him last time because they wanted to try a non-politician have seen what a disaster that was.