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+--- Thread: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 (/showthread.php?tid=291504)
It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - PeterB - 11-03-2024
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/little-secret-trump-johnson-election/
Following up on Fritz' poll a few posts down... it's entirely possible the scenario is that Harris wins with a marginal or even solid win, and then... Dump declares victory, refuses to acknowledge the results or concede (as surely he will regardless of the results), and then... we have weeks of back and forth wrangling and delay, delay, delay, followed by a refusal to certify. Then it goes to a contingent election, and we all know what will happen then.
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - pdq - 11-03-2024
One disadvantage to Trump is that he ain’t the prez any more, and so no one in government has to listen to, and stand up to him.
Not that he won’t find any sympathetic ears, but it’s possible he won’t have that many dead-enders to run to his aid if he loses.
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - mattkime - 11-03-2024
One step at a time
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - Spock - 11-03-2024
On 11/5 I expect The Rapist to declare himself the winner. The earlier he does this the more likely he is to have actually lost.
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - Ted King - 11-03-2024
This page presents some of the possible guardrails against the non-certification gambit working for Trump:
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/election-certification-processes-and-guardrails
It's a long article that gives a good historical and legal background for the Electoral College Reform Act of 2022. The final segment:
If a State Misses the Federal Certification Deadline
The legal tools described in this guide should ensure that all states certify this year’s presidential election in time to meet the ECRA deadline. In the rare instance that a state executive does not issue a certificate of ascertainment by the December 11 deadline, the ECRA provides a process for courts to order certificates to be issued by December 16, the day before the electors meet in their respective states. 3 U.S.C. § 5©(1)(B). As described above, state courts should provide fast, effective relief for parties seeking to resolve certification disputes. The ECRA also creates a procedure by which claims brought by presidential candidates with respect to certificate of ascertainment issuance or transmission can be heard on an expedited basis by a three-judge federal court. 3 U.S.C. § 5(d). These judicial processes should ensure that each state issues a correct and timely certificate of ascertainment.
So it sounds like if Republican officials want to push Trump's BS to the max then it will end up in the courts - and that means ultimately the Supreme Court. That's why I want Harris to win at least moderately convincingly to pretty much anyone who isn't soaked in MAGAmania. I don't think even the grossly partisan judges on the Court would want to overturn an election where the results are so clear to so many. But... the closer the results, the more they will want to declare Trump the winner.
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - Lemon Drop - 11-03-2024
While I can understand how we got to this place in the aftermath of the 2020 election, I think these fears are overhyped.
Why? The GOP has lost every challenge that has gone before a judge so far in this election cycle.
The decisions have all favored counting all the votes and obeying existing state and federal election laws.
One ruling out of the 5th circuit overturned a Mississippi law that allowed the state to count ballots that arrived after election day, eve nof theu are postmarked on time. But it doesn't go into effect for this election.
Another thing, I fully expect Dems to win the House by a very narrow margin. So Speaker Jeffries returns. No monkey business there.
Of course Donald will not concede. He'll whine for a while and try to raise more money off his loss. That doesn't change or threaten the results. His behavior is baked into expectations at this point.
People on the losing side of this election will be very upset and angry initially. There is the potential for random violence, sure.
And I can't see another Jan. 6. People saw where that leads. To jail.
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - RgrF - 11-03-2024
Thar particular electoral tactic is already in play. Before a single vote has been counted Trump declared Pennsylvania must be cheating since early vote totals showed more Dem than Grub ballots received.
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - Ca Bob - 11-03-2024
After a Trump loss, he will be tied up in the criminal courts (note the plural) for years to come. It could become possible for a negotiated settlement on all of the various Trump felony counts, both federal and state, provided Trump is scared enough. On the other hand (there is always another hand), Trump is not showing a lot of remorse regarding his New York criminal convictions, and the judge will take note of that.
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - bfd - 11-03-2024
Or he could just do the whole world a big favor with one final cardiovascular “event”… he has been looking and acting very strange lately.
Re: It's not just 11/5 I'm concerned about, it's 12/11 - PeterB - 11-03-2024
I understand all that you all have said (particularly Ted and Lemon Drop), it's just that... I don't put anything past this guy and his cronies, and I also think all bets are off in regard to this election and the outcome/consequences.
I fully expect that along the way, there will be some violence, definite legal wrangling, and likely a decision ending up being finally made by SCOTUS***. (For example, they might overturn the 2022 Reform Act as being unconstitutional, through I'm not sure on what grounds... I'm sure they'll come up with something.)
I would not underestimate the desperation of some of these folks, especially their orange god, since a loss for him means likely additional convictions and possible jail time.
***Edit: oh, and meanwhile, our enemies abroad are laughing at the chaos and seeming lack of unity. Regardless of the outcome, there's been a definite erosion of generally accepted norms and trust in the system.