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+--- Thread: FiveThirtyEight.com - Obama has 98.1 win chance (/showthread.php?tid=65518)
FiveThirtyEight.com - Obama has 98.1 win chance - Wags - 11-04-2008
Interesting site that tracks all the polls and does some heavy mathematical analysis that I don't pretend to understand. They were featured on tonight's NPR segment. From their FAQs:
How is this site different from other compilations of polls like Real Clear Politics?
There are several principal ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:
Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.
Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.
Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.
Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.
FiveThirtyEight.com
Re: FiveThirtyEight.com - Obama has 98.1 win chance - DavidS - 11-04-2008
It sounds very similar to how the BCS poll is done for NCAA football.
Re: FiveThirtyEight.com - Obama has 98.1 win chance - Wags - 11-04-2008
DavidS wrote:
It sounds very similar to how the BCS poll is done for NCAA football.
Yes, the main guy does baseball analysis, so same approach.
Re: FiveThirtyEight.com - Obama has 98.1 win chance - lafinfil - 11-04-2008
The 23/6.com poll shows McCain still ahead in several demographics
: - )
http://www.236.com/news/2008/11/03/_poll_spread_sean_hannity_9999.php
Re: FiveThirtyEight.com - Obama has 98.1 win chance - Black Landlord - 11-04-2008
lafinfil wrote:
The 23/6.com poll shows McCain still ahead in several demographics
: - )
http://www.236.com/news/2008/11/03/_poll_spread_sean_hannity_9999.php
Don't forget the demographic of "people in solidly blue states considering voting for McCain just to see what it feels like."
Re: FiveThirtyEight.com - Obama has 98.1 win chance - karsen - 11-04-2008
What's the money line in Vegas?!