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+--- Thread: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? (/showthread.php?tid=67065)
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The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - chopper - 11-26-2008
As a child of the 1970s I watched the muscle car market appreciate with a cynical eye. Sure, some of the cars are cool but owning them can be a PITA, especially considering the new Mustang and Dodge seem so good. Fuel injection, traction control, IRS, four-wheel disc brakes, etc etc.
$50k for a 396 SS Chevelle? $200k for a Hemi Challenger? I stood on the sidelines and laughed. The buyers on the TV car auctions seemed to be regular people out-bidding each other in order to pay through the nose for some over-powered lumberwagon WITH DRUM BRAKES. How much of that money came from home equity loans for homes now worth maybe 60% of that value?
My prediction: the housing slump and strangled credit market's next victim: muscle cars. 90% of those cars are, at best, $10k cars. At. The. Most.
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - MacArtist - 11-26-2008
I can't believe it either.
I grew up with muscle cars. For the most part a person could buy them.
They have been priced through the ceiling by boomers with too much cash/credit. If this is a deep recession, I would expect the prices to drop.
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - cbelt3 - 11-26-2008
Check Craigslist. It's already happening. Anyone with toys that needs money is selling. And I believe that *ahem* I predicted this some weeks ago as well. So my psychic prediction kung-fu is stronger, :burnout:
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - rgG - 11-26-2008
Paging RacerX, paging RacerX...
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - Racer X - 11-26-2008
high end cars will still hold their value. #3-#4 cars will likely drop, with some exceptions.
The Buick Gran Sports are holding their values, but their market is smaller, but supply is even smaller. I know of numerous GS and GNs in the mid teens to mid 40s that are moving right now. A Grand National with very low miles is worth more now than 20 years ago new. Its the hobbyst that will feel the pinch when he sells to raise quick cash. But if you buy a muscle car for an investment, you are an idiot. You buy it because you want to enjoy it and hopefully drive it. GNs and GSs typically appriciate in value 10-15% a year for the ones in #2 or#3 condition. #1s you can name your own price.
My best friend is a master inboard/outboard mechanic at the largest Grady-White boat dealership on the west coast. these are the 6 figure 20-30 foot sport fishing boats. People in those markets aren't affected by trivial matters like us peons. 10 grand a year in moorage and insurance means almost nothing to them. These are the same people who will spend 6 figures on a cool looking car to be the only one in the city with one. This is in addition to their 6 figure Mercedes.
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - BigGuynRusty - 11-26-2008
chopper wrote:The rare real MuscleCars will always have value, they are not making them anymore.
As a child of the 1970s I watched the muscle car market appreciate with a cynical eye. Sure, some of the cars are cool but owning them can be a PITA, especially considering the new Mustang and Dodge seem so good. Fuel injection, traction control, IRS, four-wheel disc brakes, etc etc.
$50k for a 396 SS Chevelle? $200k for a Hemi Challenger? I stood on the sidelines and laughed. The buyers on the TV car auctions seemed to be regular people out-bidding each other in order to pay through the nose for some over-powered lumberwagon WITH DRUM BRAKES. How much of that money came from home equity loans for homes now worth maybe 60% of that value?
My prediction: the housing slump and strangled credit market's next victim: muscle cars. 90% of those cars are, at best, $10k cars. At. The. Most.
I've owned my share, and then some, and I agree somewhat with you Chopper.
But, it isn't about brakes, traction control, fuel injection, SatNav, back up cameras, and leather.
It is the visceral thrill, the pure release of logic, the absolute thrill ride of emotion.
I have owned the following.:
70 Chevelle 454 SS
70 Formula 455 Firebird
68 HEMI RoadRunner
70 Camaro SS 454
And many, many more.
But my 1998 Ford Contour SVT E1 could out accelerate, out brake, out handle every one of my other cars. This was with only a 151 cubic inch V6 and a five speed.
Yes it was faster, it was incredible, I could drive it summer and winter, no overheating, no weekly tuneups, no headaches!
*BUT*
It was not half the thrill as my other cars, that feeling of running the car through the gears, there is no parallel in modern musclecars.
Yes, I have driven the new Challenger, Mustang, and the Corvette, all faster, all better, but not the same. The only modern car I have driven that comes even remotely close is the Dodge Viper, it'll scare the bejeebus out of you if your're not careful, no electronic nanny, no intervention, just you and the engine.
BGnR
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - cbelt3 - 11-26-2008
Racer, perhaps.
But I recall hearing that one of the sources of my Grandmother's substantial jewelry collection was jewelry being sold at rock-bottom prices by the insanely wealthy Manhattan elite who had suddenly fallen on hard times.
Look at the news. In Cleveland, the local 'time share jet' operation has laid off 2/3 of their pilots because the 'working wealthy' weren't flying and but nobody was chartering private jets any more.
Bet you could get your own Lear for a song !
(I know, you're holding out for a MIG-29 !)
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - Seacrest - 11-26-2008
BigGuynRusty wrote:
The rare real MuscleCars will always have value, they are not making them anymore.
They may "hold their value," but they won't sell.
Basically, if the owners' desire to keep the car is exceeded by his/her need for cash, then the lower the price.
Just ask any of us who owned beanie babies in the eighties. :cartman:
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - chopper - 11-26-2008
My high school car was a ratty 1970 GS. Let's just say that the person who is attracted to the GS line of that era is probably not your normal hot rod collector type.
"A Grand National with very low miles is worth more now than 20 years ago new."
I'd say that is good evidence right there that the market is overdue for a reality check.
All those cars, from a decent Falcon ragtop to SS396 to a 63 Impalla SS to a '70s small block Vette are, at best, $10k cars.
Don't get me wrong, they're cool cars. But they were never worth big money and my bet is the prices on a lot of them are going to crash now that Mr. Graybeard owner guy's bank is calling about his home equity loan for that "new bathroom" he put in back in '03.
Re: The Next Crash: Muscle Cars? - BigGuynRusty - 11-26-2008
chopper wrote:Maybe I mistyped, it isn't rarity alone that makes a car worth $$$, it is also the desire for the vehicle also.
My high school car was a ratty 1970 GS. Let's just say that the person who is attracted to the GS line of that era is probably not your normal hot rod collector type.
"A Grand National with very low miles is worth more now than 20 years ago new."
I'd say that is good evidence right there that the market is overdue for a reality check.
All those cars, from a decent Falcon ragtop to SS396 to a 63 Impalla SS to a '70s small block Vette are, at best, $10k cars.
Don't get me wrong, they're cool cars. But they were never worth big money and my bet is the prices on a lot of them are going to crash now that Mr. Graybeard owner guy's bank is calling about his home equity loan for that "new bathroom" he put in back in '03.
There are hundreds of cars that are super rare, but very few that are that desirable.
If you can find a Chevelle SS396 for $10K, buy it.
You don't understand the rarified strata the folks that are buying these cars live in.
Mr Graybeard??
He isn't worried about a pittance loan for a bathroom remodel, he just moves.
I have several friends that regularly buy horses for cash on hand.
I've witnessed $500,000 cash change hands for a horse, this was the cash she had in the house, nevermind in her safety deposit boxes at the bank.
BGnR