If Trump drops out... then what?

[Ombligo]

Other threads go me wondering what happens if Trump drops out at this point in time. I thought I'd share what I found.

First - Trump can not be removed by the party. He is the party nominee and the RNC can't change that. He must choose to step aside. The party may withdraw support, but he is still the nominee until he chooses not to be.

Second - Pence does not automatically move up. He is the VP nominee and will remain so unless he voluntarily steps aside.

Third - At this late date, the state election laws come into play. Some states require by law that the electors vote for whoever wins the vote in their state. Florida is one of those, and the Florida ballot deadline has passed. So if Trump wins florida, but has dropped out, then electors must still cast votes for him and can't change. This is true in many other states too.

The odds of that tossing the election into the House would increase. If that happens, then the GOP candidate wins most likely.

Here is a good video of David Redlawski, Ph.D at the University of Delaware explaining the process

and a Ballotpedia article going into more depth regarding state and federal law.

[graylocks]

IOW, the GOP is not merely stuck between a rock and a hard place. they are totally, completely, royally screwed.

[Lemon Drop]

Ombligo wrote:


The odds of that tossing the election into the House would increase. If that happens, then the GOP candidate wins most likely.

Here is a good video of David Redlawski, Ph.D at the University of Delaware explaining the process

and a Ballotpedia article going into more depth regarding state and federal law.

I haven't read the links yet but they look interesting. i think Trump dropping out almost certainly ensures a Hillary victory and probably puts the Senate back in Dem control. Republican turnout would plummet. The republican vote would be split between Trump and whomever might replace him on state ballots that can still be changed, and my understanding is that for most of them it's too late to change the nominee.

[Acer]

I don't see this ending up in the House barring a tie [EDIT: if Trump drops before the election.] If the RNC fails to put a viable candidate on the ballot, it's their loss. There's no law that says the Republicans (or the Democrats) must have a viable candidate on the ballot for the election to be valid, so outside of a tie there would be nothing for the House to vote on. The legal wrangling in the states would be about changing who's name is on the ballot, but the election day is set. You don't make it in time, tough--still no requirement that you field a candidate just because you are the GOP. The courts have routinely relaxed ballot-qualification deadlines, but I can't imagine (hah!) they would or could relax Election Day.

The best case scenario for Republicans is that Trump wins the race, THEN drops before the swearing in, in which case the RNC can replace him with whoever they want. Chew on that for a moment... EDIT,not so sure about this part. Per Amendment 20, further reading suggests Congress would indeed be charged with solving the problem if the president-elect can't/won't serve. But again, they have to beat Hillary first.

[Lemon Drop]

I see that Jon Huntsman and a few other prominent Rep's are calling on Trump to step down, but I don't see that happening. That would be completely outside the man's character.

As for Trump bringing Bill Clinton's extramarital activities into the election debate, I don't see that helping him at all. None of this will be news to anyone. Bill Clinton is not running, and of course never faced the electorate again after the Lewinski affair was revealed. He would not have been re-elected if that had happened in his first term and Clinton's behavior seriously damaged Gore's effort to win. I think that Trump is miscalculating badly here.

[vision63]

I don't want Trump to step down. 31 days to go. Jon Huntsman needs Trump to lose and break his party down to a nub.

[bfd]

Lemon Drop wrote: I think that Trump is miscalculating badly here.

He has miscalculated badly all along. Exactly as he's done for most of his adult life.

One need only listen to his cracked pot for a few moments to know with certainty that there's something seriously missing between his two ears.