Pickup Trucks Will Provide The First Glimpse At An All-Electric Future

[Wags]

jdc wrote:
[quote=Wags]
In my company we looked hard at going electric and the biggest problems for us were initial cost, range and charging time between shifts. Perhaps the next iteration of electric vehicles would change that. $20-25K is the upper range for us in per vehicle cost, range has to be a couple hundred miles and charging time needs to be less than a half hour in order to facilitate 2 shifts per day.

Great to have your insight.

What about fuel or maintenance costs? Assuming those were factored into cars initial cost too?

I mean range is covered easy, but I get the charging time. It would have to be some sort of complex rotation schedule.

Any insight as to rider approval? or loyalty? As in more riders would prefer your company over another cause you are using electric cars?
Maintenance and fuel cost savings are significant but you have to replace the batteries at least once during their lifespan. We run up against that in the hybrids. For them the battery pack starts to fail around 120-150K, which is less than 2 years for a taxi. Ideally we want to get 4 years of service in order for it to pencil out. Another problem with the hybrids is the motor. We've seen a lot of them fail before the expected life of the vehicle is over, often between 150 to 200K. that's not an issue for the all electrics, of course, but the all electric battery packs cost a lot more than those for hybrids. Brakes last a long time, no oil changes - those aren't a huge part of the equation.

Rider approval seemed to be nominal. The company who tried the Teslas had a lot of interest the first few months but their higher prices saw that undone fairly quickly, and with a small fleet of less than 20 their response time was poor. They were more of a novelty really. It takes a long time to generate customer loyalty, and that can be fleeting. My company's been around since 1946 and we have a lot of name recognition locally. Plus, we've worked hard over the years to service populations that others weren't doing a good job for, such as LGBTQ, low income and elderly.

[Bill in NC]

GM had a small two seat EV than ran on lead-acid batteries, which are not known for lasting very long in EV applications.

GM tried to switch over to NiMH but faced technological issues they weren't able to resolve, so much so they ended up letting those lessees terminate early.

Pure EV vehicles currently remain niche products due to the cost of the battery itself.

One recent analyst group report predicts no earlier than 2030 for mainstream EVs since the $100/kWh battery they project is needed for mainstream adoption won't be that cheap until then.

Traditional (non-plugin) hybrids remain the best bang for the buck in mass-market passenger vehicles.

[ztirffritz]

Bill in NC wrote:
GM had a small two seat EV than ran on lead-acid batteries, which are not known for lasting very long in EV applications.

GM tried to switch over to NiMH but faced technological issues they weren't able to resolve, so much so they ended up letting those lessees terminate early.

Pure EV vehicles currently remain niche products due to the cost of the battery itself.

One recent analyst group report predicts no earlier than 2030 for mainstream EVs since the $100/kWh battery they project is needed for mainstream adoption won't be that cheap until then.

Traditional (non-plugin) hybrids remain the best bang for the buck in mass-market passenger vehicles.

This is an outdated set of data. Teslas are routinely exceeding 200k miles with less than 10% range loss. Tesla is very near $100/kWh already and will probably reach that point by next year if they haven’t already.

[Carnos Jax]

ztirffritz wrote:
[quote=Bill in NC]
GM had a small two seat EV than ran on lead-acid batteries, which are not known for lasting very long in EV applications.

GM tried to switch over to NiMH but faced technological issues they weren't able to resolve, so much so they ended up letting those lessees terminate early.

Pure EV vehicles currently remain niche products due to the cost of the battery itself.

One recent analyst group report predicts no earlier than 2030 for mainstream EVs since the $100/kWh battery they project is needed for mainstream adoption won't be that cheap until then.

Traditional (non-plugin) hybrids remain the best bang for the buck in mass-market passenger vehicles.

This is an outdated set of data. Teslas are routinely exceeding 200k miles with less than 10% range loss. Tesla is very near $100/kWh already and will probably reach that point by next year if they haven’t already.
On top of that, I would suggest Tesla Model 3’s are in fact on par from a total cost of ownership perspective with Accords and Camrys. But initial purchase price distracts a lot of people in making purchasing decisions.

[MrNoBody]

One recent analyst group report predicts no earlier than 2030 for mainstream EVs
since the $100/kWh battery they project is needed for mainstream adoption won't
be that cheap until then.

That's a ridiculous premise. Same mindset that has run GM for the past decade.
GM's continues to try adapting old engineering to new technology as a money saving
method to improve the 'bottom line'.
It is not just the battery, it is also the drive motor technology, which seems to be
advancing faster than the battery improvements.

The two Integral Powertrain motors used in VW's I.D. R race car did not
even exist four years ago. Yes, the 2200lb. vehicle only has a range of < 20 miles
@ full speed but the Lithium-Ion battery pack is relatively tiny. The second generation
'I.D. R Evo' will use a completely different battery chemistry and more advanced motors.

[Bill in NC]

ztirffritz wrote:
This is an outdated set of data. Teslas are routinely exceeding 200k miles with less than 10% range loss. Tesla is very near $100/kWh already and will probably reach that point by next year if they haven’t already.

Musk himself in one of his tweets last year projected a battery replacement cost of $5,000-$7,000 per module.

The Model 3 has 4 modules for a 50 kWh-75 kWh battery pack, depending on trim.

I'm assuming Musk's lower figure refers to the smallest battery pack, the higher figure for the largest.

$20,000 to replace a 50 kWh battery pack (or $28,000 to replace a 75 kWh one) isn't anywhere near $100/kWh.