Hillary winning at 39% ....

[wurm]

Hell, if they polled me, I'd probably lie just so they would be wrong. Maybe eventually it'll dawn on them to just let the voters decide without hearing about any polls.


Nah..that'll never happen.

[RgrF]

[quote x-uri]Somebody is suggesting that it was the order of the names on the ballot that skewed the vote to Senator Clinton.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/De...id=4107883&page=1

Here is a paper that claims that this is a real effect (although they did not see anything approaching a 3% swing).

http://econrsss.anu.edu.au/~aleigh/pdf/BallotOrder.pdf (PDF link)
I have no doubt that ballot position effects vote at a lower level, I can't get my mind around the idea that people go to vote in a single purpose, hugely visable primary without knowing how they'll cast their vote.

I was once one of sixteen candidates for public office. There were paper ballots and we were rotated, I was at the top on every 16th ballot. Of course I was also on the bottom of every 16th. (my grandmother got one of those and complained bitterly to local precinct officials).

How does the present day system deal with ballot rotation and does anyone think ballot position is really a factor in a presidential primary?

[ho'ard]

Well, here in Chicago a lot of the voters are prodded into voting by various means to get local candidates into various offices, so it's not so hard for me to picture someone wandeing into the polling place and voting for the guy that promised them a job, and then naking a fairly random choice for the presidential question. I've found it odd to see a list of candidates in the past with a bunch of unknowns toward the top and the "big names" towards the bottom; I wouldn't walk into a polling place without knowing which candidate for a major office I would support, but I have felt the pull towards the candidates at the top of the list. There's probably a ton of research out there about this (?)

[quote RgrF][quote x-uri]Somebody is suggesting that it was the order of the names on the ballot that skewed the vote to Senator Clinton.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/De...id=4107883&page=1

Here is a paper that claims that this is a real effect (although they did not see anything approaching a 3% swing).

http://econrsss.anu.edu.au/~aleigh/pdf/BallotOrder.pdf (PDF link)
I have no doubt that ballot position effects vote at a lower level, I can't get my mind around the idea that people go to vote in a single purpose, hugely visable primary without knowing how they'll cast their vote.

I was once one of sixteen candidates for public office. There were paper ballots and we were rotated, I was at the top on every 16th ballot. Of course I was also on the bottom of every 16th. (my grandmother got one of those and complained bitterly to local precinct officials).

How does the present day system deal with ballot rotation and does anyone think ballot position is really a factor in a presidential primary?