DaveS wrote:
[quote=Seacrest]
[quote=DaveS]
But he decides the following Christmas to spend more than he should, goes on vacation, etc. and is back up to $5,000 and a payment he can not afford. He's back to square one - in debt for more than he can afford.
Ain't the banks fault. The bank can not control how much OTHER credit a borrower decides to use. The bank was not irresponsible, the borrower was.
I am no expert in high finance, but weren't these kinds of situations already accounted for in the calculations of credit scoring systems and other risk-assessment models?
Seacrest,
Not in the example as I laid it out. Here's why, our homeowner had already qualified for both the CC and the mortgage. Assuming (again theory) he can manage both a $250 a month CC payment AND a $750 mortgage payment i.e. total debt payments of $1000.000
When he refinances the mortgage goes to $825 and the CC goes to zero i.e total debt payment of $825. He's CC rating is still within range to qualify for the 5% mortgage. And he can still maintain a balance on the CC for up to $175.00 a month.
The bank - nor the CC issuer - has no way to insure that he doesn't go above that. That is his responsibility.
There is this company called Fair Isaac and Co.
They developed sophisticated software that banks used to use to suss out little details like the one you describe. This was way back in ancient times, say 2000 AD.
They called this, I believe, borrower "capacity." That is, they looked into the future, by looking at the past, and determined whether or not the loan applicant would -- based on whether said applicant had sufficient assets and income, minus their liabilities (that would be other debt like CC, SL, etc), be able to pay the loan back. (The other two criteria they used then were "collateral" -- they used to insist that the house they were lending on was worth at least the amount they were lending [imagine that!], and "creditworthiness" -- which is the borrower's willingness to pay.)
The banks and mortgage brokerages, though, didn't particularly like FICO telling them that loans couldn't be underwritten, and fees not collected, so many of them bypassed these checks and balances, and even tried to cut Fair Isaac completely out of the loop.
The reason they felt they could do this was because, at that time, instead of having to either wait the 15-30 odd years for the principal and interest to come back to them or making sure the loans conformed to the somewhat strict guidelines of the GSEs, they were now able to package these mortgages up with a bunch of other ones and sell them off as securities to who-knows-who and collect a big bunch of fees for doing THAT as well. (I won't even get into the "credit default swaps" and other arcane Vegas-style stuff I don't understand.)
So it's not like the banks have always been easily snookered.
It's more like they were willfully looking the other way, or actively trying to subvert their OWN lending standards while the credit bubble was inflating, and now REFUSE to take the responsibility for their failures now that the bubble has burst.