01-30-2021, 01:09 AM
PeterB wrote:
[quote=Ted King]
[quote=PeterB]
sekker has it right. The most likely explanation is -- unfortunately -- previously-undetected community spread.
That being said, it definitely IS possible for the same mutation to occur simultaneously and independently.
And... and this is a BIG "and"... there has been very little discussion so far of the possibility of viral swapping of mutations by way of simultaneous co-infection with different strains either of SARS-CoV-2 or of other coronaviruses which are quite common in the environment (typically giving more typical common cold/flu symptoms).
There HAS been some discussion of the fact that we may be inadvertently selecting for mutations with people who are infected for an extended period and then undergo various treatments which, for various reasons, may not be fully effective ... so then you are effectively selecting for mutations in the virus which help it evade the treatments. Somewhat akin to what happens when you don't use the full dose of an antibiotic on a bacterial infection and you end up selecting for some mutant form of the bacterium that has partial or full resistance to the antibiotic.
It seems like the volume (figuratively) of infected individuals would be big factor in the likelihood of a nastier strain entering into our communities. Hopefully, the vaccines will deflate the volume of infections quickly enough to prevent some really nasty strain from evolving.
The problem is, the strains we've recently identified mostly seem to increase infectivity, which means we'll be seeing a LOT more people infected, even if those people survive. While they're infected, their bodies serve as a potential "melting pot" for viral evolution. The longer they're infected, the more likely their body will allow some mutation. Some of those folks I mentioned for whom various treatments have been attempted and for whom they have had extended infection, it's been on the order of being infected for 1-2 months ... plenty of time for the virus to "cook".
The vaccines will help, if they prevent transmission as well as actually preventing the person from getting sick. The problem there is that it's entirely possible that a vaccinated person can still transmit the virus to someone else.
All the more reason to continue masking and distancing for the foreseeable future, until we know the pandemic is really under control, and probably even longer.
