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Can you do the same thing with an AEBS with an attached HD?
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I have only seen 1 dead Time Capsule in the last year and a half, it was bad out of the box. I've sent up somewhere around a hundred of them and never once had a client come back and say it died. I've had some where their time machine backups got out of sync and had to be redone, but never had one die.
My guess would be that the Time Capsule is no more likely to die than your external hard drive or basestation separately.
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thanks for the clarification
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Once you add a Hard drive with moving parts to the mix with a router your failure rate goes through the roof. Hard drives die, it is a fact of life. The mean lifetime of a router is much longer than that of a hard drive.