02-08-2012, 03:21 PM
Ted King wrote:
[quote=beagledave]
We've know for a number of weeks now that this will be a protracted process. The second tier players are shifting around some (Paul might even win some obscure primary before this is done).
At the end of the day, Romney will win...grudgingly for many GOP folks.
Then it will be about (1) Will the economy be trending upward enough to help Obama, (2) Will there be more people who "want something different...and not fuss about about who that is" (in which case Romney wins) or will more people do an actual scrutiny of Romney (in which case Obama wins).
There is always some unseen element (3) like military action somewhere.
I think that pretty much sums it up, but I would add another wildcard - the anonymous and unlimited spending that individuals and groups can do now since Citizens United. This will be the first presidential campaign since that decision so it's kind of hard to tell for sure just how much impact it will have. The Koch brothers and like minded 0.1%'s seem bound and determined to spend as much money as needed to make sure Obama isn't reelected. That may not matter, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if in a close election like this one is bound to be, that huge amounts of negative PAC advertising against Obama may be enough to swing a couple of crucial states' electoral college votes to Romney.
Seeing that the President has now embraced Super-PAC funding for his own campaign, that wild card should become a non-issue. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/07...61263.html