07-19-2012, 01:59 AM
Ted King wrote:
[quote=$tevie]
You should still be. It's still possible enough people will not care enough if Romney doesn't release more of his tax records or that Romney will release them and there's not anything all that troubling in them. If so, then even though Romney may not be a very good candidate, that may not be enough to keep him from winning the presidency because the economy is still so bad, there will be a hugely unequal amount of money spent to defeat Obama (thanks in no small part to the Citizens United ruling) compared to money spent to defeat Romney, and many Republican dominated state governments have made it so that literally millions of people who are disproportionately more likely to vote for Obama will not be voting because of the Republican voter suppression strategy. I think if Obama is only a percent ahead in the average of all the polls (of all voters) shortly before the election, then he will probably lose. If he is up a couple of points at that time then it will be really close. I think he will need to be up by an average of the polls of at least 3 percent for him to be more likely than not to win the election.
I was almost with you, Ted then you said that.
I don't think the polls of "all voters" is as accurate as polls of all _likely_ voters. Obama's young enthusiasts from 2008 are not as supportive this time and in hard times the incumbent is at a disadvantage. A couple of the swing states have Republican leadership that is tending to improve their economy. Virginia comes to mind. Then you have former Obama supporters that are showing buyer's remorse.