07-15-2013, 08:17 PM
Sticking strictly to the scientific element, the concept of 'the limits to growth' (Report to the Club of Rome, circa 1972, was based on computer modeling. The model has been systemically updated (I actually had a tiny hand in some of the original code when I was in high school.. FORTRAN was cool !). The original model missed a lot of things.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
Malthus also wrote a similar essay on the same dynamics in 1798.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Essay_on...Population
Ultimately these models missed the element of human ingenuity. Remember all the starving children in the 1960's and 1970's ? Human ingenuity produced crop yield increases that made starvation primarily a political tool (sub-saharan Africa... populations forbidden from migrating produces what are essentially political famines).
Energy limits ? Yup.. conservation, new energy sources, etc...
Lebensraum ? Again, no biggie, as long as you don't want to live in a McMansion.
Disease ? Human ingenuity is dealing quite handily with that normal reducer of over-concentrated populations. The newest killer, MES, is the latest concern, and the Saudis have issued health rules for all those participating in the Haj, which should help a lot.
War ? Nowhere near as bad as it used to be. Yes, the 3rd world peoples die more handily in warfare, while first world peoples kill electronically from a continent away. But huge wars, with the real killer (disease) are back in the 20th century.
Arguably we're heading into a new Limit situation with CO2, but I expect human ingenuity to resolve that.
Net result ? The planet can handle a lot more people... biomass wise human beings are still a teeny bit of the biome.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
Malthus also wrote a similar essay on the same dynamics in 1798.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Essay_on...Population
Ultimately these models missed the element of human ingenuity. Remember all the starving children in the 1960's and 1970's ? Human ingenuity produced crop yield increases that made starvation primarily a political tool (sub-saharan Africa... populations forbidden from migrating produces what are essentially political famines).
Energy limits ? Yup.. conservation, new energy sources, etc...
Lebensraum ? Again, no biggie, as long as you don't want to live in a McMansion.
Disease ? Human ingenuity is dealing quite handily with that normal reducer of over-concentrated populations. The newest killer, MES, is the latest concern, and the Saudis have issued health rules for all those participating in the Haj, which should help a lot.
War ? Nowhere near as bad as it used to be. Yes, the 3rd world peoples die more handily in warfare, while first world peoples kill electronically from a continent away. But huge wars, with the real killer (disease) are back in the 20th century.
Arguably we're heading into a new Limit situation with CO2, but I expect human ingenuity to resolve that.
Net result ? The planet can handle a lot more people... biomass wise human beings are still a teeny bit of the biome.