04-19-2020, 08:55 PM
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20053157v1
(yes this is a preprint, it has not yet been peer reviewed)
Interesting findings:
Test round one (before lockdown) 86% of population tested, 2.6% prevalence of COVID-19
Test round two (after 2-week lockdown) 72% of population tested, 1.2% prevalence
43% of positives were asymptomatic (Iceland got the same result)
Virus load was the same in symptomatic and asymptomatic people
People who tested positive in the second round got infected either before the lockdown, or from an asymptomatic family member
Assuming these are meaningful results, I think we can conclude from this that social distancing works, but also that asymptomatics are going to really get us if we re-open without widespread testing in place.
This seems to be built in to what Drs. Fauci and Birx are saying, yet the states saying they are ready to open have some of the weakest testing regimens in place.
(yes this is a preprint, it has not yet been peer reviewed)
Interesting findings:
Test round one (before lockdown) 86% of population tested, 2.6% prevalence of COVID-19
Test round two (after 2-week lockdown) 72% of population tested, 1.2% prevalence
43% of positives were asymptomatic (Iceland got the same result)
Virus load was the same in symptomatic and asymptomatic people
People who tested positive in the second round got infected either before the lockdown, or from an asymptomatic family member
Assuming these are meaningful results, I think we can conclude from this that social distancing works, but also that asymptomatics are going to really get us if we re-open without widespread testing in place.
This seems to be built in to what Drs. Fauci and Birx are saying, yet the states saying they are ready to open have some of the weakest testing regimens in place.