05-17-2020, 03:16 PM
Here are the parameters I used:
2 weeks of social distancing, starting 2/14, 1% death rate, 10% rate of hospitalization, moderate intervention level, no effect of warm weather (sorry, but I don't think this will matter), R naught of 2.2. None of these parameters are (to me) really that far off, except maybe the weather.
If I change the start date of intervention to later, like 4/15, I get the same date for a peak, with 1.9 million deaths.
Edit: I think it depends on how you define length of interventions. If I lengthen the interventions to 40 days, starting 3/15, I get much the same numbers, just a different date for the peak...
2 weeks of social distancing, starting 2/14, 1% death rate, 10% rate of hospitalization, moderate intervention level, no effect of warm weather (sorry, but I don't think this will matter), R naught of 2.2. None of these parameters are (to me) really that far off, except maybe the weather.
If I change the start date of intervention to later, like 4/15, I get the same date for a peak, with 1.9 million deaths.
Edit: I think it depends on how you define length of interventions. If I lengthen the interventions to 40 days, starting 3/15, I get much the same numbers, just a different date for the peak...