06-14-2020, 08:52 PM
Run the numbers the other way. The current use of "verified" by testing for death toll numbers keeps out those who died with symptoms consistent with COVID-19.
So the estimates made after the fact will include those untested individuals implicitly. Would have to look up actual figures to be more exact, but for example using made up figures maybe there were 1 million deaths in total on average a month before the pandemic. During the pandemic the figures show up as 60,000 a month higher on average using the high of about 2,000 a day dying at the peak and verified.
The statisticians would then look at the breakdown of the deaths by category. If they saw for instance an average of 1,000 fewer auto accident fatalities, another 1,000 a month fewer accidental deaths working at a job, and so on that could be linked to people doing those things less during the pandemic, that would reduce the number of expected deaths during that period below that average seen before the pandemic. Some portion of that difference can be inferred to be from COVID-19.
If the number of deaths from other causes averaged 950,000 a month during the pandemic, that leaves a difference of 50,000 from the expected rate. With data from epidemiological studies such as post pandemic antibody tests they may estimate that 30,000 +/- 5,000 of those deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19, but in that 50,000 difference were from the disease.
So the estimates made after the fact will include those untested individuals implicitly. Would have to look up actual figures to be more exact, but for example using made up figures maybe there were 1 million deaths in total on average a month before the pandemic. During the pandemic the figures show up as 60,000 a month higher on average using the high of about 2,000 a day dying at the peak and verified.
The statisticians would then look at the breakdown of the deaths by category. If they saw for instance an average of 1,000 fewer auto accident fatalities, another 1,000 a month fewer accidental deaths working at a job, and so on that could be linked to people doing those things less during the pandemic, that would reduce the number of expected deaths during that period below that average seen before the pandemic. Some portion of that difference can be inferred to be from COVID-19.
If the number of deaths from other causes averaged 950,000 a month during the pandemic, that leaves a difference of 50,000 from the expected rate. With data from epidemiological studies such as post pandemic antibody tests they may estimate that 30,000 +/- 5,000 of those deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19, but in that 50,000 difference were from the disease.