06-18-2021, 05:19 PM
Janit wrote:
[quote=Filliam H. Muffman]
Didn't it used to be standard theory that a virus/bacteria always eventually selected higher transmission and lower mortality? I guess in modern populations that include immune compromised people with some form of vaccine antibodies, that this virus hasn't hit the lower mortality phase yet...
That could happen in this case too, but it may take some time. Moreover, additional factors now complicate the trajectory involved in achieving equilibrium: international travel, modern medicine, etc.
The virus/bacterium is not the only thing that changes. One route to lower mortality can be that the most susceptible humans die, and the survivors represent those who are genetically more hardy in face of the infection. Their progeny may be more disposed to experience milder symptoms. It is more useful to think in terms of a co-evolution between humans and the bugs.
There's been a suggestion that the co-evolution thing occurs at least partially in response to human behaviors, such as hand-washing (or lack thereof), social distancing (ditto), etc.
Also, again there has been a suggestion that the mutations are most frequently cropping up in patients who are persistently infected with the virus, which suggests that there either might be some co-infection going on (as I've proposed) or just the fact that you have a virus continuing to replicate in the face of various drugs and treatments is effectively causing an in-the-body evolution/selection for particular mutations.
It will be interesting (not in a good way) to see what happens with Delta in those states, like mine, where the majority are still unvaccinated and do not plan on getting vaccinated. Not only would I expect to see an explosion in cases and deaths, but the very real possibility of new, secondary mutations such as Delta plus. If one or more of these mutations causes the vaccines to be substantially or wholly ineffective, then we're all up the creek.