05-07-2023, 07:54 PM
samintx wrote:
Poll numbers so bad. We can’t have another 4 years of ORANGE.
Had to look this up...
"Former President Trump leads President Biden by 7 points in a hypothetical 2024 matchup between the two...The Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 49 percent of Americans said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump or are leaning toward casting their ballots for him in a hypothetical matchup with Biden in 2024...42 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for Biden or are leaning toward supporting him in 2024.
When asked who they would vote for if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis were the Republican nominee...the governor also led the president by 7 points. The poll released Sunday found that 48 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for DeSantis or would lean toward voting for him, while 41 percent said the same thing for Biden."
Given the nearly same percentages, I think this can more accurately be read as Biden has a committed 41-42%, and 48-49% just want a change of some sort. But there's almost a year and a half until the election - a lot can happen.
I think it will all hinge on whatever happens with the economy; James Carville had it right in 1992 - "It's the economy, stupid"; in hindsight, the 1992 recession was one of the mildest of all time, (and I think GHWB knew that, and acted accordingly) - but the public wants hand-holding and empathy.
Likewise - think back to pre-COVID: the economy was booming. I actually remember one of my co-workers asking me sometime in late 2019 if there was anything that could derail Trump's re-election, and I told him that I think the only thing would be the economy; fast-forward a year: COVID definitely gut-punched the economy and Trump fell.
So - likewise for Biden. Unless something else big happens to grab the headlines, I think however the economy is doing in October 2024 will decide the outcome of the election.