05-08-2023, 12:39 AM
numbered wrote:
As to the Senate, the Cooke folks think the biggest Dem risks are
Manchin
Tester
Brown
WV, MT, and OH have gone sooooo red that it will be a challenge. They are not too worried about AZ since Gallego is a pretty good candidate.
They were willing to say that Cruz might be the fourth most vulnerable given Colin Allred.
fwiw, Never Trumper David Frum wrote in the Atlantic (paywalled) about "The Coming Biden Blowout"
I count Arizona as lost. Gallego should withdraw. Mark Kelly won reasonably comfortably but garnered just 51.4%
Katie Hobbs just squeaked by Kari Lake. Barely won.
Biden won the state by just a few thousand votes. If Kari Lake runs I can't see her losing with 2 Dems running (yes, I know). No way an incumbent isn't going to run. This is basically just handing the Senate seat over to Republicans. May e a miracle will help out.
Gallego is super popular in his district. Generally about 2.3 or 4 million Arizonans vote. The statewide elections are generally a tie. Arizona is bluing but not quite blue blue.