05-08-2023, 12:44 AM
numbered wrote:
As to the Senate, the Cooke folks think the biggest Dem risks are
Manchin
Tester
Brown
WV, MT, and OH have gone sooooo red that it will be a challenge. They are not too worried about AZ since Gallego is a pretty good candidate.
They were willing to say that Cruz might be the fourth most vulnerable given Colin Allred.
fwiw, Never Trumper David Frum wrote in the Atlantic (paywalled) about "The Coming Biden Blowout"
Can you provide a link for that? When I Googled I found this:
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/se...ce-ratings
May 3, 2023
LEAN D
MI-Open
MT-Tester
NV-Rosen
PA-Casey Jr.
WI-Baldwin
TOSS UP
AZ-Sinema(I)
OH-Brown
WV-Manchin
In 2020 Trump won over Biden by 8% in Ohio, but he beat Biden by over 16% of the vote in Montana and yet the Cook Report has Montana as lean Democrat. A March Quinnipiac University Poll had Brown up by 10 points. Like I said, I think that it more likely than not that Brown will win reelection because of issues like abortion in spite of Ohio becoming more "conservative" in general. The same Quinnipiac Poll had Brown up by 17 points among women. Of course, it's only my guess but I think Brown is likely to win in Ohio.
I will admit that what happens in Arizona depends a lot on whether or not the Republicans can coalesce strongly around the eventual nominee. If they devolve into disarray then I think either Gallego or Sinema have fairly equal chances of winning.