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"The economy appears to be doing just fine"
#16
One more:

The payroll company ADP says year-over-year, the median wage gain is 4.6% for people who stay in the same job. It’s 6.2% for the people who switch jobs.

… The actual wage increase number isn’t all that important, said Bankrate’s senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick. “The magic number is positive with respect to real earnings. Real earnings being earnings adjusted for inflation,” he said.

Right now it is positive, because those wage increases have been bigger than price increases. Inflation is around 2.5% while wage gains — even for folks who stay in the same job — are almost twice that.

…That’s because it’s still a workers’ market, said Nicole Smith. She’s chief economist at Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce.

“Those workers still have the upper hand to make decisions about moving or staying and what types of wages they will accept,” she said.

Smith said demand for workers (think job openings) is still greater than the supply (think unemployed people).

… So wages are growing faster than inflation, even though wage gains have fallen. Dean Baker, a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said that’s a win-win.

… Perhaps even better news: Baker said he thinks this 2% gap of wage gains over inflation could stick around.

“If you could point to a period of 2% sustained real wage growth, you really have to go back to the ’60s. So, things look pretty good right now,” he said.

The linked article has a number of caveats - wage growth is settling down now after a period of even higher growth. And YMMV, of course. But the rhetoric of the other side - that wages aren’t keeping up with inflation - is belied by the data.
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Re: "The economy appears to be doing just fine" - by pdq - 10-31-2024, 12:34 PM

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