04-08-2006, 10:00 PM
I think that the way to become filthy stinkin' rich is to sell software that is on 30-40% of all computers, more if possible. If Apple simply supplants Microsoft as the only player in the game, then they become susceptible to the same monopoly scrutiny the MS endures. If they both capture 30-40% of the market they both get filthy stinkin rich, they both retain profitability, and they both dodge the monopoly moniker. By licensing the OS they shift from being a hardware company to a software company. That is why it is such a delicate balance during the tranistion. In order to have enough momentum and income to replace the hardware business they'd need to have at least 25% of the OS business locked in(that's just a number that I pulled from...well you get the idea). The overhead required to design, plan, produce, distribute and support hardware is huge compared to selling software. There is absolutely no reason why Dell or HP or someone else couldn't create a PC that catches everyone's eye and beat Apple at their own game. Essentially Apple is riding on their reputation and their brand recognition right now. Their hardware is not that much different from a high-end Acer or Alienware, it just looks better. They have maybe 2 years at best to make a grab for market share. Now is the time for them to declare war on MS. Everyone thinks that Google has some grand plan up their sleeve, but I think that Apple is doing the best Houdini trick ever. "Hey! Look over there at Google while we steal your market share." MS is shooting themselves in the foot on a weekly basis it seems. I don't see them coming out of this year with all of their momentum intact. Their OS is delayed, Office is delayed, they're shaking up their management at the senior levels...Apple on the other hand has brand recognition, a more secure stable OS, record sales, record profits, their computer sales are growing at twice the industry growth-rate. Steve has made some incredible gambles with Apple and most of them have worked out well. I'll repeat this again, everyone should go back and watch the Macworld Boston '97 video. In about 20 minutes Steve revitalized a company that was broken and nearly bankrupt. He pointed out that people should stop thinking of MS as a competitor, but rather a parter that can help both companies be much more profitable. I think that OS X is going to do Windows better than Windows does and use MS' own monopoly against them. Again, this is all just speculation from my overly caffinated brain.