Do the Democrats have a chance to take back the House?

[Gutenberg]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/d...etworkNews

Democrats think they can recoup and surpass the Republicans' 25-seat majority in the House of Representatives. As you might expect, many Republicans disagree.

Whaddya think?

[$tevie]

I have begun to believe that people vote very emotionally when it comes to their Congresspeople, and that anything is possible. How mad are they at whom when the polls open seems to be the determining factor.

[rjmacs]

Given how much Americans hate Congress, it's not inconceivable. But you have to work the numbers to know for sure; the vast majority of seats are not really contested.

[beagledave]

Current money says nope.

[cbelt3]

If the libertarians were able to come up with as strong a push as the Tea Partiers did in 2008, they'd suddenly become a significant party.

[Filliam H. Muffman]

I think if the Democrats could come up with a couple of good issues that divided the tea party and the biggest banking/finance recipients (like Scott Brown versus Elisabeth Warren, but for the House), they could get it a little more even. They need someone that can be a modern Democrat version of Newt from 1984 to fire up "the 99%" without alienating their current big pocket donors too much.

Tough to do without being able to get the money out.

[Grace62]

I think a lot of it depends on whether Republicans can get their voters excited about the race in the fall. If they are not excited about their candidate and his chances, that will suppress turnout and hurt other Republicans down-ticket. So far this primary season their voters are participating less than in '08.
Seems unlikely that Democrats would retake the House this time - I'm hoping we hold the Senate and White House.

[vision63]

cbelt3 wrote:
If the libertarians were able to come up with as strong a push as the Tea Partiers did in 2008, they'd suddenly become a significant party.

Libertarians. They remind me of an old New Yorker comic I saw once. "The little engine that could but was too self-realized to have to prove it." As soon as they start to organize themselves they turn into something else altogether.

[Trouble]

Grace62 wrote:
I think a lot of it depends on whether Republicans can get their voters excited about the race in the fall. If they are not excited about their candidate and his chances, that will suppress turnout and hurt other Republicans down-ticket.

Don't confuse a lack of excitement in the primary between candidates and the big election in Nov against Obama.

[Dennis S]

Trouble wrote: Don't confuse a lack of excitement in the primary between candidates and the big election in Nov against Obama.

There will still be a lack of excitement when it boils down to one candidate. There will always be the rabid anti-Obama faction, but the lack of excitement will undoubtedly keep voters home - Republicans and undecideds.