Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted...

[RgrF]

...that the Democratic Party will take control of the Senate this year.

This 5 minutes ago. Nate just gave Mitch a spur he didn't need.

[$tevie]

I'm pretty sick of Nate Silver. I think he's all math and no common sense. And no heart.

[mattkime]

$tevie wrote:
I'm pretty sick of Nate Silver. I think he's all math and no common sense. And no heart.

Eh, no common sense?

[sekker]

Actually, he says there is a higher chance of the democrats taking the Senate than the GOP to retain it.

Not sure how his forecast justifies this statement - '...that the Democratic Party will take control of the Senate this year.'

[RgrF]

sekker wrote:
Actually, he says there is a higher chance of the democrats taking the Senate than the GOP to retain it.

Not sure how his forecast justifies this statement - '...that the Democratic Party will take control of the Senate this year.'

The headline was lifted from the MEDIAite site; my issue wasn't with the prediction (after all it is the notoriously inaccurate Nate Silver) so much as it was with the timing.

[$tevie]

mattkime wrote:
[quote=$tevie]
I'm pretty sick of Nate Silver. I think he's all math and no common sense. And no heart.

Eh, no common sense? He couldn't wait to say this?

[mattkime]

$tevie wrote: He couldn't wait to say this?

He didn't say it. Mediaite said it. he said this - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...st/senate/ - and I suspect its updated continuously.

[mrbigstuff]

Even if he didn't say it, some blowhard will say it to gin up the troglodytes.

[graylocks]

i listened to the entire 538 podcast today. that’s not the conclusion Silver drew. he said there was about a 29% chance of the dems taking the Senate which, weirdly enough, what he predicated 45’s chances of winning in 2016 at a time when the 45 campaign predicted they had a 30% chance of winning. 538 said it would more likely be a 50/50 split.

[Speedy]

It shouldn’t even be a contest given how horribly the Republicans have screwed up the response to COVID45.