about the economy - Politico

[Fritz]

Voters Were Right About the Economy. The Data Was Wrong.

Eugene Ludwig is former U.S. Comptroller of the Currency.

[sekker]

Saw that, is interesting reading.

[numbered]

From the article wrote:
Republicans, by contrast, seemed more inclined to believe what they were seeing with their own two eyes.

Until the election, when somehow things turned terrific.

There is quite a bit wrong in the article, even if the point that everything is not roses everywhere is useful. Decrepit cities might be the result of changing retail? Growth in places with high education might be a thing....?

I am sure tariffs are the answer.

[pdq]

I had already read it, and (to me), it was the SOS. (Same ol’ shit).

Are there different measures of unemployment? Absolutely. But this argument that Well, yes, the standard measure of unemployment is low, but this other, more lax/inclusive measure is higher! Sure average wages are up, but if you include unemployed people, who aren’t earning anything, the average isn’t as high (duh.)

Well, yes, that’s right. It always like that. That alternate unemployment measure was also higher than the headline number under Trump as well. But comparing apples to apples, per the agreed-upon long-standard unemployment measure, under Biden it was historically low - the longest lowest persistent level of unemployment in, like 50 or 60 years. This was particularly striking considering all of the experts were predicting an imminent recession almost throughout his tenure. But somehow the economy suprised everyone. (BTW, this SO argument (in my memory) seems to reappear every time a Dem occupies the WH.)

Basically, this guy (who’s pushing his book, honestly, and his “Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity”) is saying it’s not great for everyone.

That’s true. It never is. And there are a number of new challenges - you can’t make raise a family by getting a job at the local plant any more, but that hasn’t changed in years. And housing in particular is historically expensive, making home ownership a real challenge.

But the job market is not one of those challenges, at least in the aggregate. And compared to the past, using the same standard measure, the economy (and specifically unemployment) was empirically, based-on-data, better than under Trump, under Obama, and under Bush.

[Harbourmaster]

yes but the price of eggs...

[anonymouse1]

I’ve read him before. Ne’s still wrong, and making faulty arguments

[pdq]

After digging into it, apparently he’s been making the same argument for quite some time:

THE VANISHING AMERICAN DREAM
A FRANK LOOK AT THE ECONOMIC REALITIES FACING MIDDLE-AND LOWER-INCOME AMERICANS

BY GENE LUDWIG RELEASE DATE: SEPT. 22, 2020

…which was supposedly borne out of an “impressive assemblage of luminaries” he brought together in spring of 2019. In his view, the period including the Greatest Economy in the History of the World brought “stagnating and even declining wages and a dearth of employment opportunities as well as the rising costs of basic necessities like shelter, education, and health care [which] have left many in the nation embattled.”

So the piece he wrote for Politico (not a product of Politico) is not the usual hit piece that appears whenever the economy does well (or has done well) under a Dem president. He raises some valid issues about long-term trends, but falls back into the well-worn Akshually, unemployment is higher if you use different measures argument which has been true for, well, forever.

[JoeH]

I read an AskHistorians response on the history cited in the opinion piece, basically most of the history cited is at best - off. https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/c...e/mcria9j/

Other aspects of the piece have been picked over by others. My take, you know the saying "Lies, damn lies, and statistics", well the author of this piece is doing a good job of using statistics improperly to lie.

[Fritz]

I am, admittedly, not the most educated person.
I take it that most of you feel Luddies words are a giant partisan lie, and employment is generally consistent and properly measured, and at an acceptable level over the last 20 years or so.
There are no US cities in decline, and that homelessness is no worse today than it was 20 years ago and may actually be less.
The dems were generally right going into the election about their perception of the US economy and employment.
Leaving the Biden/Harris event out, the main reason that fatty won is that he and his lot are more effective & genuine (sic) liars.
Dems should continue on the road they are on, even if it's dirt and potholes into the great wilderness.