What happens with the political bases of the parties if it's Romney vs. Obama?

[Ted King]

The liberal "base" of the Democratic party has been disappointed in a great many things Obama has done and failed to do. An unenthused base would be a big problem for Obama in the next election.

Even though Romney has been in almost full bore pander mode with the Tea Party "base" of the Republican party, it seems evident that they are not at all enthused about him as being the party's nominee. So, it appears that if Romney is nominated, he will likely also have a problem with his base.

Of course, exactly what constitutes a party's "base" is very fuzzy, but it really does seem that there are a large core of activists in each party that tend toward certain views on things.

If all of the above is basically correct, and if we assume that Romney and Obama will be the nominees from the their parties for the presidency, then who do you think will have a bigger problem with their base? Or do you think that problems with their bases will just be a wash (with each having about an equal amount of base enthusiasm problem)?

I think problems with the base enthusiasm will be a problem for both Obama and Romney and that those problems will tend to be about equal. I imagine both of them (assuming they are the nominees) are goint to have conniption fits trying to spark enthusiasm in their bases while also trying to appeal to independents. That's always been a challenge for presidential candidates, but I think it will be an especially acute problem for those two guys next year (assuming they are the nominees).

[cbelt3]

I think that, rather than a large core of activists, that each party has a large FRINGE of activists. The core of each party is very similar, as is the core of American voters.

I think rather we'll see a repeat of Clinton vs. Bush, when the fringes of the Republican party allowed it to self-destruct, and the core of the Democratic party kept it together.

Ed: I'll agree that both candidates will appeal to independents. For independents the candidate's party will be the main disadvantage. If the Republican Fringe keeps being as shrill and disruptive as they have been, the independents will look to Obama for calm. Of course, if the Democratic party fringe gets all cwazy, then all bets are off.

[Bill in NC]

Usually the candidate who raises the most money wins.

[Ted King]

cbelt3 wrote:
I think that, rather than a large core of activists, that each party has a large FRINGE of activists. The core of each party is very similar, as is the core of American voters.

But in a close election - which the next one probably will be - if that core of activists loses enthusiasm, that translates into perhaps a half percent (or more) less votes for the candidate of their party. And that little bit may be all it takes to lose a close election.

[Mac1337]

cbelt3 wrote:
For independents the candidate's party will be the main disadvantage. If the Republican Fringe keeps being as shrill and disruptive as they have been, the independents will look to Obama for calm.

Scaring Republicans that if you say what you believe in "independents", whoever they are, will flee to Obama is the standard election time tack. Yet, the vaunted independents went with the "shrill and disruptive" tea party last November. Start thinking out of the box.

[Sam3]

I would say that the TEA party's virulent hatred of Obama will have them voting for Romney even if they don't much like him or his policies. The disillusioned Left may just stay home with a "he (Obama) disappointed us so why bother voting, nothing will change" attitude. Add to that the changing voting laws that disenfranchise those voters that generally would vote Democratic and possibly rigged voting machine issues and the election goes to Romney.

[OWC Jamie]

Why would Democrats have problems with their base ?
Dead people and illegals change their minds ?
:devil:



Give the people a choice between a Republican and a Democrat who talks like a Republican and they'll choose the Republican every time.
-- Harry S. Truman

[Mac1337]

Obama gave the base what they have wanted for 100 years. It may not be perfect but like all other social programs it will only grow.

[RgrF]

The 800 pound gorilla in the room is Romney's religion. The GOP is highly dependent on the near monopoly they have with social conservatives. Many of these voters will have difficulty voting for someone from what many of them consider a "non-christian" religion.

The almost uniform hatred they hold for the President could overcome this prejudice or not.

[Kiva]

Bill in NC wrote:
Usually the candidate who raises the most money wins.

or the candidate the media chooses to write their narrative around...