Recession 2.0?

[Lemon Drop]

I'm a little worried.

[pdq]

Well, markets don't like uncertainty, and there's lots of that.

That said, US GDP is still growing. The latest core CPI came in at +0.1% (total CPI was negative at -0.1%). Employers still adding jobs. Energy is cheap. And of all of the world, the US (and our currency) seems to be doing the best (or nearly so).

At this point, I think what we mostly have to fear is fear itself.

[RgrF]

“The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up. Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief,” he said on the eve of the event.

The BIS was one of the few organisations to warn during 2006 and 2007 about the unstable levels of bank lending that eventually led to the Lehman Brothers crash.

speculating about depression

[cbelt3]

Industrial capacity utilization has been dropping steadily for the better part of a year.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCU

[Bernie]

It is an election year.
Business has a heavier than normal Lobby Liability.
Even Apple, who contributes to both sides of the fence, will be incuring heavier campaign donations.
This is not income tax evasion. This is tax deductible, personally directed agenda donations.

I wish I could direct my tax money like that.-D

Back to the thread. This is just a Market adjustment.

[Black]

I'm about to pay an (adjustable rate) mortgage bill that's seen the first real increase in 10 years. I think there are multiple factors in place that could slow the economy. Funniest thing is that even though it was a spike in gas prices that got people to stop spending any money in 2008, nobody talks about how the current dip is a "bubble" and we should all be prepared for a "correction."

[Bernie]

Yeah. What Black said. My home eq line of necessity goes up .5 percent this year.
I swear I posted to this thread on the other side.
Was it something I said?

[Speedy]

I think everyone knows the oil companies and OPEC will increase the price of crude, probably sooner rather than later. Most of us are just basking in the warm glow of low priced crude while we can. But I do think the price should remain low for until after the election.

I'm just glad that Congress has wisely funded refilling the strategic oil reserve again while prices are so low.

[Carnos Jax]

Bernie wrote: This is just a Market adjustment.

This is what I'm hearing from some people (I personally know and respect) in the financial industry.

[hal]

Speedy wrote:
I think everyone knows the oil companies and OPEC will increase the price of crude, probably sooner rather than later. Most of us are just basking in the warm glow of low priced crude while we can. But I do think the price should remain low for until after the election.

Speedy - it's supply/demand as always. OPEC sets production levels - not prices. But they have been in disarray for years and have been completely unable to act in unison. Now Iran is able to sell LOTS of oil, pressure is still pushing prices downward.

I was expecting a timely refinery disaster, but it hasn't happened... yet.