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I think it will be a rough winter. Putin will likely continue his bluster at least that long, even if he ultimately backs down.
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A lot depends on how cold next winter is in places with a high demand for natural gas. For example, if Western Europe has a bitterly cold and prolonged winter the worldwide prices are likely to rise noticeably. If places like Western Europe have an unusually mild winter, then the upward pressure on natural gas prices will be much less.
Beyond next winter it gets even harder to guess, but a totally out of my ass guess is that the trend line on natural gas for the next couple of years is a rise of a few percent beyond inflation. (Lots of short term variation, though.)
Of course, if something dramatic like the war in Ukraine spirals out of control, then things like that can change the picture quite a bit.
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It can only go one way - up. But there are lots of long term contracts out there between suppliers and utilities so it could get interesting on the spot market. Texas hasn’t done anything to fix it’s problems because the suppliers loved the huge spike in pure gouging profits they made in 2020.
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I was spending up to $200/mo on gas during winter in upstate NY 18 years ago.
I shudder to think what people will have to spend this winter.
