BREAKING: Selzer Des Moines Register final Iowa poll: Harris surges ahead

[Lemon Drop]

the final Ann Selzer/DMR poll of Iowa:

Harris up 47% to 44%.

( Last DMR poll had Trump up 47/43 in September.)


Why this poll is interesting: she was one of the few to see Trump's 2016 victory coming. Also got 2020 right.
She is not a "herder, " This is an independent poll with rock solid methodology.


So if Harris is winning (checks notes) Iowa?!?!

Well that's a good sign.


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/...354033007/

[wurm]

Good. But still too damn close in this sane vs insane race.

[Lemon Drop]

wurm wrote:
Good. But still too damn close in this sane vs insane race.

I have a feeling that by Wednesday night we're going to learn this thing was not as close as advertised in the media.

For a whole bunch of reasons.

there have been very few high quality state polls this cycle, this Iowa result is one. We needed more.

A few states will be very close, but won't impact a clear winner. HARRIS.

[rgG]

Lemon Drop wrote:
[quote=wurm]
Good. But still too damn close in this sane vs insane race.

I have a feeling that by Wednesday night we're going to learn this thing was not as close as advertised in the media.

For a whole bunch of reasons.

there have been very few high quality state polls this cycle, this Iowa result is one. We needed more.

A few states will be very close, but won't impact a clear winner. HARRIS.
As they say, from your mouth to god’s ears.

[Wags]

Lemon Drop wrote:
[quote=wurm]
Good. But still too damn close in this sane vs insane race.

I have a feeling that by Wednesday night we're going to learn this thing was not as close as advertised in the media.

For a whole bunch of reasons.

there have been very few high quality state polls this cycle, this Iowa result is one. We needed more.

A few states will be very close, but won't impact a clear winner. HARRIS.
You may be right, and I certainly hope you are. Some make the argument that big corporate money behind both parties are influencing pollsters to keep it close so that the execrable amount of money being spent will continue to flow.

[abevilac]

Last Thursday I was at a lecture at Franklin and Marshal College in Lancaster PA. Berwood A Yost Is the faculty member behind the poll which is cited in the NYT.
https://www.fandmpoll.org/
He was not very encouraging about a Harris win in PA, though not exactly discouraging either. He just felt that it was too close.

[Lemon Drop]

abevilac wrote:
Last Thursday I was at a lecture at Franklin and Marshal College in Lancaster PA. Berwood A Yost Is the faculty member behind the poll which is cited in the NYT.
https://www.fandmpoll.org/
He was not very encouraging about a Harris win in PA, though not exactly discouraging either. He just felt that it was too close.

I think PA is a difficult state to poll. Big, diverse population. Remember some polls missed the Fetterman win in 22.

I predict Kamala by 2.

[gabester]

rgG wrote:
As they say, from your mouth to god’s ears.

I prefer "from your ballot up Trump's rear."

[rgG]

gabester wrote:
[quote=rgG]
As they say, from your mouth to god’s ears.

I prefer "from your ballot up Trump's rear."
miley-laughing001:
That does have a certain ring to it.

[Carnos Jax]

FWIW, I think Polymarket (a betting site?) just swung from Trump to Harris.