Holy @#&*()!!- FBI/DEA Thwart plot to kill a Saudi diplomat in the US. The Plotters ? Iranian Government ops

[Bill in NC]

Still sounds like something from "The Onion"

[Ted King]

This is former top Bush Security Advisor Steven Hadley interviewed on Fox Business in mid-July this year:

http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/0...-oil-iran/

BOLLING: Sir, I have pointed this out in the past, a scenario that could happen. They tried it in the past. Iran could close off the Strait of Hormuz, that very, very short world oil choke-point, cutting off not one or two million barrels a day but 17 million barrels a day. A very easy put [sic] them to do. What would happen to the price of oil and the American economy?

HADLEY: The price of oil would skyrocket. I am sure you would see more than 200 barrels — dollars a barrel for oil. The economy would be in severe straits. Our military will tell you that in time there will be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it wouldn’t have to be closed very long to have a devastating impact on our economy and the global economy. It’s not just the United States. But the United States is particularly vulnerable because we are struggling and it is of course where we live so we care about it.

Here's a map of what he's talking about - the colored lines are for oil pipelines:

[OWC Jamie]

Uh.oh. A weapon of mass disruption.

[Ted King]

billb wrote:
Uh.oh. A weapon of mass disruption.

Nice one.

[cbelt3]

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/...feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wired%2Findex+%28Wired%3A+Index+3+%28Top+Stories+2%29%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

"The wild story put out by the Justice Department about an Iranian assassination plot smells suspiciously like something passed through a bull’s digestive tract. But the U.S. should hope that it’s true. Because it makes Iran’s fiercest terrorist organization look like blithering idiots."

[Ted King]

I just don't see the logic in making anything more than maybe drone attacks within Iran (and even that would probably not be a good idea) because of the fact that it would be easy for Iran to choke off the Straight of Hormuz - cutting off a significant percent of world oil supply. It would be extremely hard to stop all the different modes that Iran could employ to cut off the Straight - they can use everything from midrange and short range missiles to bomber and fighter aircraft to mid-sized naval craft to large numbers of small boats. It's kind of Iran's doomsday machine - because they can only use it once and the damage it does is targeted at all - it's goes everywhere. And after the damage was done there is no way the regime in Iran would survive - the world simply wouldn't accept the welfare of six billion plus people being dependent on a regime that already showed itself willing to do that kind of damage. But still they can threaten to pull the trigger on the doomsday machine and a cost/benefit analysis leads me to conclude that nothing short of a severe and truly imminent threat (as opposed to the Bush II ersatz imminent threat variety) to the security of the U.S. would justify anything more than very small scale military action against Iran.

We need to think of Iran like we did the Soviet Union. Contain it. The theocratic rulers of Iran have already lost their legitimacy in the hearts of the young (and probably a majority of older Iranians). They show no signs of adapting and every sign of becoming more oppressive. If they don't adapt they will be sowing the seeds of insurrection and their eventual overthrow (there are a great many ways that could play out). The seeds of insurrection could already be sprouting.

If we act with significant military force without sufficient provocation in the minds of even the anti-regime people, then the regime would be able to use nationalistic pride to rally the people to them - snuffing out what may be at least a nascent anti-regime movement.

For the U.S. and most of the rest of the world, containment wouldn't be easy and it certainly would be extremely frustrating - and Israel is a real wildcard in a containment strategy. But large scale military action will almost surely trigger Iran's rulers to use the doomsday machine (close the Straight of Hormuz) and the world would suffer great damage as a consequence. That's a big risk to take. Containment stinks as a strategy, but the alternative stinks more.