06-13-2020, 09:33 PM
sekker wrote:
[quote=PeterB]
My personal feeling is that, as usual, it'll come down to the EC. That's why it'll be crucial to mobilize the minority / disenfranchised voters in those swing states... I posted this in another thread, but I think it'll come down to: AZ, FL, MI, NC, WI ... and of course OH/PA.
Remember also that there are ways around the election day chaos / low turnout / coronavirus issues ... I myself will be doing an early / mail-in ballot. That was nearly his downfall in 2016, which is why he and his campaign managers are doing all they can to prevent/circumvent this.
Yes, will be fascinating to see how the mail-in ballot issues split this election. I think MN is doing a great job amidst COVID in ensuring access to the ballot box - that alone seems to me to be a major blow to the Orange Emperor. But next door in WI - will be different. I think the OE is alienating MI, so I think the key states are PA and WI. But if COVID goes terrible in AZ or FL, there will be some massive implications there too.
It may very well come down to this, however, it's an undependable voting demographic. Dems already basically get this vote. So we're talking marginal turnout percentage elevation swings of a minority group in a general election.
The "only" metric we have to go on is based on what brought about victories in 2018. 41 flipped House seats fueled literally by female white swing voters. Note that one seat, California 25, flipped back to MAGA by a massive landslide last month or so. They're gonna turn out in heavy numbers.
In this primary season, Sanders believed that he could motivate a massive turnout in the the 18 - 29 age demographic, and that would propel him to the nomination. Hindsight being fairly clear, only 13% of that demo voted despite the massive rallies that they believed was proof of his popularity. Why they didn't vote is a big question mark.
White suburban women who are sick of Trump will likely provide the margin. The one's everybody keeps calling Karen. Trump's team is hammering them with the idea that the entire Democratic left is socialist. They're not interested in socialism. They're actually afraid of it.
Hopefully, there will be a massive groundswell of everyone that hates Trump turning out to sweep him and all of his enablers to the curb. That would be ideal. That's if everybody can focus and not allow their righteousness and purities to infect their decision making sensibility. Like pundit Eddie Glaude Jr did in 2016 (though he's still punditing away unfettered as if he literally didn't try to sink Clinton. Multiply him by thousands and consider the sweep of their influence).
