Make your election percentage prediction

[mick e]

Vermin Supreme dominates this one, folks.

[beagledave]

Lemon Drop wrote:

In places where Obama is ahead, it is never by more than 10%.

California
New York
Illinois
Hawaii
Washington
Vermont

These are some of the places where Obama is ahead by WAY more than 10. Where did that stat come from? I hope not Nate.

It was not Nate, sorry for the phrasing confusion. It was commentary on Meet the Press about the disparity between national and state polling. And you're right about the leads in those (and other) states. I wish I remembered the details from the show, but essentially Romney is picking up heavy support in areas like the deep south and Appalachia that pushes his national poll average higher than using state polls)

[$tevie]

mick e wrote:
Vermin Supreme dominates this one, folks.

He's a Baltimore boy. Used to go around the country running for Mayor before he shifted gears and began running for President.

[beagledave]

I had never heard of this guy before, but Emery University poli sci professor Drew Linzer runs Votamatic. His data runs make Nate Silver look like a gutless pansy

http://votamatic.org/

Obama 326 (down from 332) and Romney 212

[$tevie]

If he's right I'm going to have an awfully bad hangover on Wednesday. :-)

[freeradical]

Are there any pastrami sandwiches on the line here?

[Speedy]

315 for Pres. Obama. Popular vote will be the president, 49.8, and the governor 49.1.

[Ted King]

After Obama's disastrous first debate performance I felt like I've had to figuratively hold my breath until the election. That's why I decided to stop posting to this forum shortly after that debate.

I'm still holding my breath. I think Obama will win the the popular vote by somewhere between 0.5% to 1.0% I won't be astonished if either Obama wins by more than 1% or if Romney wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college. I will be surprised if Romney wins both the popular vote and the electoral college. But there certainly is a reasonably strong possibility that Romney will win them both.

If Romney does win, I will be upset but hopeful. I will be upset because I think Romney - driven by the puritanism of the Tea Partiers - will do all kinds of things that will cause a lot of what I consider to be unnecessary suffering by children, and adults who have led reasonably responsible lives. But if Romney wins the presidency then since what is important to me is minimizing unnecessary suffering, I will hope that what Romney and the Republicans manage to get implemented will work well toward minimizing unnecessary suffering. I'm a partisan because I think that Romney's approach will surely be wrong, but I'm not so much a partisan that I hope that whatever Romney manages to get done if he is elected will make things worse. I would just be really afraid that that is what he would do.

Edit: Electoral college wise I don't have much of a gut feeling. I think Obama's numbers will fall somewhere between the 270 he needs to a bit over 300. I know that's pretty weak as predictions go.

[$tevie]

Here, Ted, read Nate's graphs and try to smile:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

:-)

[Speedy]

Yikes, I didn't know Silver had gone with 315 for Pres. Obama before my post. I hope we are both right.