Trump is going to win

[dk62]

pdq wrote:
Oh please.

Our economy is currently the best in the developed world - empirically, not just my opinion. Stock markets reflect this (plus some irrationality, honestly) but in any case, setting new records nearly every week and doing waaaay better than the last guy did.

We just had unemployment’s longest run of sub-4% since the 50’s.

Inflation (which was, for the hundredth time, a world-wide post-pandemic phenomenon) has come down as fast or faster than other countries. Mortgages are still high, but that’s largely due to a recalcitrant Fed. And workers pay has exceeded inflation, especially on the low end, so that for the first time in a generation the income gap may be narrowing.

Deficits, while of concern, have been halved since Trump’s last year.

We are actually on a course - not just promising to release a secret plan in two weeks - to tackle aging infrastructure, and are pursuing it.

Crime is down nationally and dropping “precipitously”.

Immigration has soared (not surprisingly, since people from all over want to live here for the reasons above), but Biden presented a plan for immigration reform his first day in office, and the Senate finally hammered out a bipartisan (plus Independents) compromise along those lines. But Trump decreed that that problem must not be solved, so he can yammer about it, and the GOP capitulated and threw the conservative Senator James Lankford (who negotiated it) under the bus.

We are in no foreign wars, but have supported and enabled a much smaller country to resist Putin’s aggression for years now.

Now, a third of the country has drunk the Trump Kool-aid and (and least pretends) they believe the country is in horrible shape. (Hey, are you gonna believe me, your great leader and stable genius, or your own lyin eyes?)

And Biden is old.

If I recall correctly, four years ago you said you hated Hillary Clinton and everything she stood for. Trump won and appointed three more young compliant conservative culture warriors to the SCOTUS that have since upended women’s lives, among other things. Don’t like Biden? Vote for whoever you want.

But don’t give us this crap about how stupid the Democratic party is. When given the presidency, they’ve accomplished all of the above, despite the best efforts of the other side and their allies in the Faux News universe. And that should be worth the vote of anyone who hasn’t closed their mind.

Okay?

Rant over.

Yes but no. When was the last time that rational thinking and facts won an election? They may drive 30%-40% of the votes, but not the rest. You need energized and excited voter base that is willing to consider all the options and will get out and vote. Biden did not have the excitement last time either, but he had the despicable opponent. The same opponent is not any less despicable, but people have forgotten the disgust they shared in 2020. Coupled with disappointment in Biden's handling of Middle East (a no-win scenario either way), general feeling of worse economy than in the preceding 4 years hyperbolized by GOP messaging, unclear and insufficient Democrat messaging on the points you delineate above, and the apparent cognitive and energy decline*, there will be fewer Democratic and independent voters coming out due to apathy. And it is a pity, as getting both houses of Congress in Democrat hands is ultimately more important than who the president is. Failing that, MAGAts will be able to do crazy things with Trump as a winner, or completely block Biden if he is.

*Do not make a mistake of comparing this with Trump's mental incompetency. That one does not matter to his devotees or die-hard GOPers.

[Blankity Blank]

pdq wrote:
Oh please.

Our economy is currently the best in the developed world - empirically, not just my opinion. Stock markets reflect this (plus some irrationality, honestly) but in any case, setting new records nearly every week and doing waaaay better than the last guy did.

We just had unemployment’s longest run of sub-4% since the 50’s.

Inflation (which was, for the hundredth time, a world-wide post-pandemic phenomenon) has come down as fast or faster than other countries. Mortgages are still high, but that’s largely due to a recalcitrant Fed. And workers pay has exceeded inflation, especially on the low end, so that for the first time in a generation the income gap may be narrowing.

Deficits, while of concern, have been halved since Trump’s last year.

We are actually on a course - not just promising to release a secret plan in two weeks - to tackle aging infrastructure, and are pursuing it.

Crime is down nationally and dropping “precipitously”.

Immigration has soared (not surprisingly, since people from all over want to live here for the reasons above), but Biden presented a plan for immigration reform his first day in office, and the Senate finally hammered out a bipartisan (plus Independents) compromise along those lines. But Trump decreed that that problem must not be solved, so he can yammer about it, and the GOP capitulated and threw the conservative Senator James Lankford (who negotiated it) under the bus.

We are in no foreign wars, but have supported and enabled a much smaller country to resist Putin’s aggression for years now.

Now, a third of the country has drunk the Trump Kool-aid and (and least pretends) they believe the country is in horrible shape. (Hey, are you gonna believe me, your great leader and stable genius, or your own lyin eyes?)

And Biden is old.

If I recall correctly, four years ago you said you hated Hillary Clinton and everything she stood for. Trump won and appointed three more young compliant conservative culture warriors to the SCOTUS that have since upended women’s lives, among other things. Don’t like Biden? Vote for whoever you want.

But don’t give us this crap about how stupid the Democratic party is. When given the presidency, they’ve accomplished all of the above, despite the best efforts of the other side and their allies in the Faux News universe. And that should be worth the vote of anyone who hasn’t closed their mind.

Okay?

Rant over.

[vision63]

dk62 wrote:
[quote=pdq]
Oh please.

Our economy is currently the best in the developed world - empirically, not just my opinion. Stock markets reflect this (plus some irrationality, honestly) but in any case, setting new records nearly every week and doing waaaay better than the last guy did.

We just had unemployment’s longest run of sub-4% since the 50’s.

Inflation (which was, for the hundredth time, a world-wide post-pandemic phenomenon) has come down as fast or faster than other countries. Mortgages are still high, but that’s largely due to a recalcitrant Fed. And workers pay has exceeded inflation, especially on the low end, so that for the first time in a generation the income gap may be narrowing.

Deficits, while of concern, have been halved since Trump’s last year.

We are actually on a course - not just promising to release a secret plan in two weeks - to tackle aging infrastructure, and are pursuing it.

Crime is down nationally and dropping “precipitously”.

Immigration has soared (not surprisingly, since people from all over want to live here for the reasons above), but Biden presented a plan for immigration reform his first day in office, and the Senate finally hammered out a bipartisan (plus Independents) compromise along those lines. But Trump decreed that that problem must not be solved, so he can yammer about it, and the GOP capitulated and threw the conservative Senator James Lankford (who negotiated it) under the bus.

We are in no foreign wars, but have supported and enabled a much smaller country to resist Putin’s aggression for years now.

Now, a third of the country has drunk the Trump Kool-aid and (and least pretends) they believe the country is in horrible shape. (Hey, are you gonna believe me, your great leader and stable genius, or your own lyin eyes?)

And Biden is old.

If I recall correctly, four years ago you said you hated Hillary Clinton and everything she stood for. Trump won and appointed three more young compliant conservative culture warriors to the SCOTUS that have since upended women’s lives, among other things. Don’t like Biden? Vote for whoever you want.

But don’t give us this crap about how stupid the Democratic party is. When given the presidency, they’ve accomplished all of the above, despite the best efforts of the other side and their allies in the Faux News universe. And that should be worth the vote of anyone who hasn’t closed their mind.

Okay?

Rant over.

Yes but no. When was the last time that rational thinking and facts won an election? They may drive 30%-40% of the votes, but not the rest. You need energized and excited voter base that is willing to consider all the options and will get out and vote. Biden did not have the excitement last time either, but he had the despicable opponent. The same opponent is not any less despicable, but people have forgotten the disgust they shared in 2020. Coupled with disappointment in Biden's handling of Middle East (a no-win scenario either way), general feeling of worse economy than in the preceding 4 years hyperbolized by GOP messaging, unclear and insufficient Democrat messaging on the points you delineate above, and the apparent cognitive and energy decline*, there will be fewer Democratic and independent voters coming out due to apathy. And it is a pity, as getting both houses of Congress in Democrat hands is ultimately more important than who the president is. Failing that, MAGAts will be able to do crazy things with Trump as a winner, or completely block Biden if he is.

*Do not make a mistake of comparing this with Trump's mental incompetency. That one does not matter to his devotees or die-hard GOPers.
Do crazy things is kinda an understatement. If Trump wins and somehow gets both houses along with SCOTUS, we can cross a threshold that we can't cross back over. We can lose the country. Imagine being a Russian. We can't go "oh wow, this guy is crazy, we made a mistake, we'll correct it in the next election." While at this very moment, states are unraveling everyone's right to vote. They'll be asking everyone they hate to guess how many jellybeans are in a jar in order to "vote."

There's a larger portion of the left that just want to be contrarians. I think it's the Dunning-Kruger Effect? You know enough about something to think that you're right, but not enough about it to know that you're wrong. I think I'm getting that right.

The right and the left have been fighting a battle of how to stick it to one another. Both sides have become mobs with no hopes of consensus.

The right are just monsters with zero concerns.
The left are just monsters with zero concerns.

Right now, the left is Mike Tyson on auto-pilot. We don't want the right to be Buster Douglas whose mama just died.

[anonymouse1]

My take, which I really want to write up as an article, but I don't have time.

1. The Republicans have become the party of resentment; they primarily try to whip up resentment, and have few or no policies to put forward that will really benefit peoples' lives.

2. The Democrats suck at messaging and counterattacking. They just let the Republicans spew lies and misleading statements without any effective response. They're bring logical knives (or even spoons) to an emotional gunfight.

3. There is a pretty small number of radicals on the left. There are a large number of radicals on the right. Show me who on the left has the reach and is as radical as Murdoch, Speaker Mike Johnson, Charlie Kirk, Ben Shapiro, the Heritage Foundation? They aren't there.

4. The media has become center right, where it used to be centrist.

That's all I've got time for on this

[anonymouse1]

You're saying stuff here that doesn't match how I see things, and I know you're smart and informed, so I'm hoping you can give me some specifics, either so I can expand my understanding, or try to convince you otherwise.

Who, specifically, is in the "larger portion of the left that just want to be contrarians"? Skip BLM, they are not are large portion of the left. DSA? Pro-Palestine? I see those as actually pretty small parts of the left that get disproportionately large press because scary stuff gets clicks.

What are the specific things "the left" is doing to stick it to "the right"? And again, how are you defining "the left" here?

Thanks!

vision63 wrote:
{snip to eliminate the stuff I agree with -good points there, but it's boring to just say "I agree! I agree!")
There's a larger portion of the left that just want to be contrarians. I think it's the Dunning-Kruger Effect? You know enough about something to think that you're right, but not enough about it to know that you're wrong. I think I'm getting that right.

The right and the left have been fighting a battle of how to stick it to one another. Both sides have become mobs with no hopes of consensus.

The right are just monsters with zero concerns.
The left are just monsters with zero concerns.

Right now, the left is Mike Tyson on auto-pilot. We don't want the right to be Buster Douglas whose mama just died.

[vision63]

anonymouse1 wrote:
My take, which I really want to write up as an article, but I don't have time.

1. The Republicans have become the party of resentment; they primarily try to whip up resentment, and have few or no policies to put forward that will really benefit peoples' lives.

2. The Democrats suck at messaging and counterattacking. They just let the Republicans spew lies and misleading statements without any effective response. They're bring logical knives (or even spoons) to an emotional gunfight.

3. There is a pretty small number of radicals on the left. There are a large number of radicals on the right. Show me who on the left has the reach and is as radical as Murdoch, Speaker Mike Johnson, Charlie Kirk, Ben Shapiro, the Heritage Foundation? They aren't there.

4. The media has become center right, where it used to be centrist.

That's all I've got time for on this

Democrats can't force the media to carry it's "messages." That doesn't make them incompetent at messaging. It's not about who is a "radical" or not. It's about what has become effective at diminishing it's messages.

The biggest, most gigantic fear on the left is Kamala Harris. She's Black and a woman at the precipice of power. They just don't want to come out and say it.

But they say it by their nuances. If white man Gavin Newsom was Vice President, people would be lunging forward to embrace Biden. K-Hive wouldn't exist, if that wasn't a problem. If Obama wasn't Black and a "problem" on the left, Black Twitter wouldn't exist.

The right is filled with "radicals" as you say. The left has a generous faction of latent misogynists (and latent racists). Right now, it's going to take a month or so before the election for these misogynists to wake the hell up and say "we can't let Trump win, screw my hidden concerns."

[mattkime]

vision63 wrote:
The right are just monsters with zero concerns.
The left are just monsters with zero concerns.

Sorry, but thats just saying "Aren't pro and anti democratic movements just two different sides of the same coin?"

Its a popular opinion but its fucking garbage.

---

The biggest obstacle for dems is that Biden does a poor job of projecting competence and frankly most of politics seems to be mostly about projecting.

The biggest source of optimism is the Dems have over performed in the majority of elections since the rise of Trump because the informed electorate is more likely to show up.

Its waaaay too close and I REALLY wish the dems were showing up with a more muscular defense of liberal democracy but we have what we have and I need to vote regardless.

[vision63]

mattkime wrote:
[quote=vision63]
The right are just monsters with zero concerns.
The left are just monsters with zero concerns.

Sorry, but thats just saying "Aren't pro and anti democratic movements just two different sides of the same coin?"

Its a popular opinion but its fucking garbage.

---

The biggest obstacle for dems is that Biden does a poor job of projecting competence and frankly most of politics seems to be mostly about projecting.

The biggest source of optimism is the Dems have over performed in the majority of elections since the rise of Trump because the informed electorate is more likely to show up.

Its waaaay too close and I REALLY wish the dems were showing up with a more muscular defense of liberal democracy but we have what we have and I need to vote regardless.
I was being sarcastic. It was a commentary on how groupthink and mobbing works and the person that has been critical of both-siding anything on this forum has been ME, by miles.

[mattkime]

Sorry, easy to use such nuance.

[kj]

Ted King wrote:
[quote=kj]
https://www.economist.com/united-states/...clear-lead

Good Lord, why is your party so dumb. Actually, it could be that Democrats are so creative in their thinking that they convince themselves what they are doing makes sense. Intelligent stupidity. If Trump wins, I've had it. A party this stupid doesn't deserve to win.

It's not easy building coalitions to win a nomination, especially against a sitting president, so it's not surprising nobody tried. I hope you also have even more disgust with Republicans who have transformed themselves into a mob party and uninformed voters who think we are in a recession and Biden was responsible for the overturning of Roe because he was president.
I'm no fan of Trump. The most unforgiveable thing he's done for me is pretty much ruin the "Christian Church" (no one is capable of ruining the faith, in my opinion). I'm not a fan of abortion, so if Biden overturned Roe, that bothers me very little. My main concern is the backlash.

In my opinion, the Democrats chose a bad candidate. I've heard why he's not, but he is, and it's not going well. Another killer is the most progressive part of the party that moderates on both sides dislike. And the constant smug insults perpetrated by your main Democrat PR guys (Colbert, Seth Meyers, Stewart, etc.) and parroted by half the internet is successful only in stoking anger (I can't even watch them, they are so toxic).

More subtle is the straying of the Democratic party from classic liberalism where the goal is to influence people by arguing the merits of positions. The left has joined the right in ramming their ideology down peoples' throats, because they are now so sure of their righteousness.

I have not, and will not vote for Trump. I may vote for Biden, or I may "throw my vote away" voting for someone I like. But I'm peeved at the Democratic Party for being so DUMB.