BREAKING: Selzer Des Moines Register final Iowa poll: Harris surges ahead

[Speedy]

Carnos Jax wrote:
FWIW, I think Polymarket (a betting site?) just swung from Trump to Harris.

That’s a good sign! Iowa is a state that has been trending rightward. Unfortunately, I don’t expect it to suddenly turn blue this election.

[Carnos Jax]

From https://twitter.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

Lyz Lenz @lyzl wrote:
People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

[Lemon Drop]

Carnos Jax wrote:
FWIW, I think Polymarket (a betting site?) just swung from Trump to Harris.

No , it did not.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidentia...inner-2024

And polymarket is Peter Thiel junk.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive...08194.html


Ann Selzer has a far better track record and reputation.

Polymarket has neither.

[Lemon Drop]

Carnos Jax wrote:
From https://twitter.com/lyzl/status/1852854833285570566

[quote=Lyz Lenz @lyzl]
People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It’s the abortion ban. Women are furious.

Yes the difference makers here are women. And Iowa voted for Obama in 2008 and had a Dem governor through 2011, so yeah it's been red for a while but has been blue in recent history.

The poll could certainly be wrong, but as a trend it is a stunning reversal from June when Trump led Biden by double digits.

[Carnos Jax]

Lemon Drop wrote:
[quote=Carnos Jax]
FWIW, I think Polymarket (a betting site?) just swung from Trump to Harris.

No , it did not.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidentia...inner-2024

And polymarket is Peter Thiel junk.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive...08194.html


Ann Selzer has a far better track record and reputation.

Polymarket has neither.
Never said it wasn’t, you’re assuming things…..hence why I said “FWIW”.

[pdq]

Lemon Drop wrote:
[quote=Carnos Jax]
FWIW, I think Polymarket (a betting site?) just swung from Trump to Harris.

No , it did not.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidentia...inner-2024

And polymarket is Peter Thiel junk.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive...08194.html


Ann Selzer has a far better track record and reputation.

Polymarket has neither.
Buuuut:

Trump election odds tumble on betting markets after Iowa poll shows Harris lead
Harris is now the favorite on betting site Predictit.

That and $4 will buy you a mocha. But continuing…

Politico’s senior political columnist Jonathan Martin weighed in on the polls significance on X Saturday.

The Selzer story is not, necessarily, a Harris lead in Iowa

It is Harris leading by 20 points among women in a heavily white, Midwestern state.

The conservative editor-in-chief of the Dispatch described the import of the poll in another X post.

I don’t think Trump will lose Iowa. But if Iowa is even close, that’s not good news for him in WI, MI, etc. In other words Selzer can be wrong. But she has to be wildly wrong for this not to be significant. That’s definitely possible. Outliers are to be expected. But wow.

:dunno:

[Lemon Drop]

Des Moines Register: “The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris."

[mrbigstuff]

Switching to NC, I just read that only 3 out of 10 R voters for Haley (not gen pop R voters) are needed to numerically flip the state to Harris, all other things being equal.

[Lemon Drop]

North Carolina going to be one of the more interesting results next week. Dem Josh Stein will be elected Gov.

Wasn't expected to be blue for president until Harris showed up, then Hurricane Helene messed with things and we were back to lean red.

Donald's team is now very nervous about NC, he's going there every day. Team Harris is hopeful, she did a big rally in Charlotte yesterday. Jamie Harrison has been there all week, which tells me he thinks it is 100% in play.

She could win it.
We'll see.

[Ted King]

Lemon Drop wrote:
North Carolina going to be one of the more interesting results next week. Dem Josh Stein will be elected Gov.

Wasn't expected to be blue for president until Harris showed up, then Hurricane Helene messed with things and we were back to lean red.

Donald's team is now very nervous about NC, he's going there every day. Team Harris is hopeful, she did a big rally in Charlotte yesterday. Jamie Harrison has been there all week, which tells me he thinks it is 100% in play.

She could win it.
We'll see.

Why did Helene cause a shift to lean red?