538 has Clinton with 65% chance of winning. Huffpo has her at 98%.

[Dennis S]

I think I'll start a prediction business.

[beagledave]

Sam Wang has her at about 99% .

http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch...1634371744

[$tevie]

TheUpshot has her at 84%.

538 has been very conservative about her chances, for the most part. I think being totally wrong about Brexit has made Nate a little less cocky.

[Uncle Wig]

$tevie wrote:
TheUpshot has her at 84%.

538 has been very conservative about her chances, for the most part. I think being totally wrong about Brexit has made Nate a little less cocky.

Yup. A lot of people were wrong about Brexit, not just him.

[davester]

Nate does statistics (i.e. science). His methods are published and transparent. He also understands the meaning of uncertainty. The others do punditry.

Unfortunately, most of the public has never taken even an elementary statistics course so they can't tell the difference between Nate's carefully worded estimations and Trump yelling "the polls say that we're sending Hillary to jail!"

This would all be OK if the public at large understood that someone who spends years studying and learning to understand science knows more than idiots who own someone who just bought a propaganda broadcasting station. Unfortunately this is not the case.

[OWC Jamie]

538 is obviously Trump biased.