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As to the Senate, the Cooke folks think the biggest Dem risks are
Manchin
Tester
Brown
WV, MT, and OH have gone sooooo red that it will be a challenge. They are not too worried about AZ since Gallego is a pretty good candidate.
They were willing to say that Cruz might be the fourth most vulnerable given Colin Allred.
fwiw, Never Trumper David Frum wrote in the Atlantic (paywalled) about
"The Coming Biden Blowout"
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Manchin is one of the richest and most powerful people in Congress. Hard to see him losing that seat involuntarily.
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Governor Justice is very popular and has announced he is running against Manchin. Money will be no object on either side. Trump will matter in WV.
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numbered wrote:
As to the Senate, the Cooke folks think the biggest Dem risks are
Manchin
Tester
Brown
WV, MT, and OH have gone sooooo red that it will be a challenge. They are not too worried about AZ since Gallego is a pretty good candidate.
They were willing to say that Cruz might be the fourth most vulnerable given Colin Allred.
fwiw, Never Trumper David Frum wrote in the Atlantic (paywalled) about "The Coming Biden Blowout"
I count Arizona as lost. Gallego should withdraw. Mark Kelly won reasonably comfortably but garnered just 51.4%
Katie Hobbs just squeaked by Kari Lake. Barely won.
Biden won the state by just a few thousand votes. If Kari Lake runs I can't see her losing with 2 Dems running (yes, I know). No way an incumbent isn't going to run. This is basically just handing the Senate seat over to Republicans. May e a miracle will help out.
Gallego is super popular in his district. Generally about 2.3 or 4 million Arizonans vote. The statewide elections are generally a tie. Arizona is bluing but not quite blue blue.
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numbered wrote:
As to the Senate, the Cooke folks think the biggest Dem risks are
Manchin
Tester
Brown
WV, MT, and OH have gone sooooo red that it will be a challenge. They are not too worried about AZ since Gallego is a pretty good candidate.
They were willing to say that Cruz might be the fourth most vulnerable given Colin Allred.
fwiw, Never Trumper David Frum wrote in the Atlantic (paywalled) about "The Coming Biden Blowout"
Can you provide a link for that? When I Googled I found this:
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/se...ce-ratings
May 3, 2023
LEAN D
MI-Open
MT-Tester
NV-Rosen
PA-Casey Jr.
WI-Baldwin
TOSS UP
AZ-Sinema(I)
OH-Brown
WV-Manchin
In 2020 Trump won over Biden by 8% in Ohio, but he beat Biden by over 16% of the vote in Montana and yet the Cook Report has Montana as lean Democrat. A March Quinnipiac University Poll had Brown
up by 10 points. Like I said, I think that it more likely than not that Brown will win reelection because of issues like abortion in spite of Ohio becoming more "conservative" in general. The same Quinnipiac Poll had Brown up by 17 points among women. Of course, it's only my guess but I think Brown is likely to win in Ohio.
I will admit that what happens in Arizona depends a lot on whether or not the Republicans can coalesce strongly around the eventual nominee. If they devolve into disarray then I think either Gallego or Sinema have fairly equal chances of winning.
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Frum is a hired political hack, a consultant who coined the term "welfare queen". He signed on to the Atlantic (more fools they) who will he be selling his political wares to next?
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Just to clear, the “coming Biden blowout” he refers to is a blowout win.
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Of course there is the tactic practiced in 2020 of having state legislatures overturn the popular vote. Did not work that time, but it could work next time.
I would like to get rid of the winner take all rules. The electoral college should be divided proportionately according to the popular vote. Does the EC have to be real people? Could it not just be virtual numbers, maybe out to the second or third decimal of the popular vote?
That would let my vote count here in a state that gives all of its EC votes to the other side.
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The obvious solution to people wanting a change from Biden is for Dems to nominate Bernie. :RollingEyesSmiley5:
Getting rid of Electoral College would require a super majority of Dems in both houses that all won by landslides. It would only happen if 85%-90% of the 18-35 population voted, but they have had it pounded into their heads that their votes don't count.
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Filliam H. Muffman wrote:
Getting rid of Electoral College would require a super majority of Dems in both houses that all won by landslides.
Not necessarily.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential ticket wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
It only works if enough states participate to reach 270 electoral votes. Participating states (all blue) currently have a total of 195 (or 75 short). MN (10 EV) and MI (15) seem like possible additions. Now we're down to 50. Would NC (16), WI (10), PA (19), NV (6) ever do so? Possible, and that would put it over. How about AZ (11)? They used to have some forward-looking voting proposals. Or VA (13), trending blue?
Stranger things have happened. Of course the GOP would fight this tooth and nail, having won only one popular vote for president in the last 31 years...
