"The economy appears to be doing just fine"

[AllGold]

A significant portion of the electorate believes the gloom and doom spewed by right-wing media.

For example, a bunch of people who ignore reality and are told what to think believe we're at a 50-year high in unemployment, not the reality that we're at a near 50-year low.

[hal]

pdq wrote:
Last quarter GDP numbers are out, and they look pretty darn good to economists (and the markets).

the markets changed thier mind

[pdq]

hal wrote:
[quote=pdq]
Last quarter GDP numbers are out, and they look pretty darn good to economists (and the markets).

the markets changed thier mind
They did. A tech company announced today that their auditor/accounting firm (Ernst and Young) had quit, mentioning accounting irregularities. Not a good sign for them, and that stock lost about a third of its value.

Also drugmaker Lilly got hit hard after they reported disappointing sales of their version of the new weight-loss drugs, dropping ~$70 a share from its previous close.

Most importantly, meme stock DJT lost over a quarter of its value in one day since the open on no particular news.

:dunno:

[sekker]

Yeah, what is UP with DJT stock today?

Answer - nothing, it was entirely a down day!

[pdq]

A point of reference from Germany:

Germany narrowly avoids recession with slight Q3 growth

Germany's federal statistics agency Destatis unveiled its quarterly estimate of the country's GDP on Wednesday.

The numbers showed a slight growth of 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024, following a second-quarter contraction of 0.1%.

Ironically, that was better than they had expected.

The figures came as a surprise as the government had been expecting a renewed slight decline after the second quarter output.

This meager bit of good news was offset by other, not-so-good news:

While the slight growth was welcome news in Germany, Destatis also said on Wednesday that inflation had risen slightly, from 1.6% in September — its lowest point for more than three years — back up to 2% for October, based on preliminary figures.

In other words, virtually the same inflation level as us, but with near-zero economic growth.

Jobs? Unemployment?

Destatis also released figures on unemployment, which remained almost unchanged compared to the previous month at around 2.8 million people, or 6%.

Andrea Nahles, head of Germany's Federal Employment Agency, said the usual autumn bump in employment figures "had failed to materialize this year."

And it’s not just Germany. There’s a reason that our economy keeps being referred to as “the envy of the world”.

[pdq]

One more:

The payroll company ADP says year-over-year, the median wage gain is 4.6% for people who stay in the same job. It’s 6.2% for the people who switch jobs.

… The actual wage increase number isn’t all that important, said Bankrate’s senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick. “The magic number is positive with respect to real earnings. Real earnings being earnings adjusted for inflation,” he said.

Right now it is positive, because those wage increases have been bigger than price increases. Inflation is around 2.5% while wage gains — even for folks who stay in the same job — are almost twice that.

…That’s because it’s still a workers’ market, said Nicole Smith. She’s chief economist at Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce.

“Those workers still have the upper hand to make decisions about moving or staying and what types of wages they will accept,” she said.

Smith said demand for workers (think job openings) is still greater than the supply (think unemployed people).

… So wages are growing faster than inflation, even though wage gains have fallen. Dean Baker, a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said that’s a win-win.

… Perhaps even better news: Baker said he thinks this 2% gap of wage gains over inflation could stick around.

“If you could point to a period of 2% sustained real wage growth, you really have to go back to the ’60s. So, things look pretty good right now,” he said.

The linked article has a number of caveats - wage growth is settling down now after a period of even higher growth. And YMMV, of course. But the rhetoric of the other side - that wages aren’t keeping up with inflation - is belied by the data.

[pdq]

Sorry, another one. More good news:

Key Inflation Metric Hits Lowest Point Since 2021 In Final Report Before Election (from that liberal rag, Forbes).

Inflation was 2.1% last month, according to the personal consumption expenditures price index, which measures how much more Americans spent this September than in Sept. 2023.

That matches consensus economist estimates of 2.1% headline PCE inflation reading, according to FactSet data, coming in at the lowest level since Feb. 2021’s 1.85% before the global inflation crisis ravaged Americans’ wallets.

Global. Glo-bal. Global, post-pandemic inflation. Everyone saw post-pandemic inflation, not just us. But few if any countries have done as well since.

One more last report is due (tomorrow) before election day:

The last remaining major economic update due before Election Day will be Friday morning’s employment report, which will reveal October’s unemployment rate and labor market growth. Consensus economist forecasts call for an unemployment rate of 4.1%, flat from September, and 110,000 jobs added, the weakest growth since April.

I’m betting that the jobs number surprises to the upside, again.

[RgrF]

Cant imagine what it’s like being a Euro Minister of any sort. Betwixt juggling socialist with capitalist €£ monetary policy with foreign entanglements and age old nativitist rivalries and a portfolio demanding consensus. All our cabinet members have to do is decide how to spend what’s left after defense shreds the budget and claim impotence in the face of budget realities. How much should I cut that check for Mr. Haliburton?

[sekker]

RgrF wrote:
Cant imagine what it’s like being a Euro Minister of any sort. Betwixt juggling socialist with capitalist €£ monetary policy with foreign entanglements and age old nativitist rivalries and a portfolio demanding consensus. All our cabinet members have to do is decide how to spend what’s left after defense shreds the budget and claim impotence in the face of budget realities. How much should I cut that check for Mr. Haliburton?

Exactly.

It's almost as if a land war between neighbors causes major economic disruption!